13th 2023 Vital Statistics Data Drop For 2023 on 30 August 2024. Data is still incomplete for end of year. Deaths and Births are Both Lower Than 2022 Levels but Will Increase.

NCR shows excess deaths of +4.3% vs. 2022, but increased births (+2.4%). Leading Causes of Death are heart attack (18.8%), cancer (10.7%), stroke (10%), and diabetes (6.3%).

PSA has released its regular monthly update on 2023 vital statistics compiled as of 30 June 2024.

Marriages increased by 4,746 since the last release. There have been 12% fewer registered marriages in 2023 compared to 2022. Does this reflect reduced confidence in the future, reduced ability to pay for the cost of a wedding, or a general societal trending towards solemnizing marriages?

Registered births increased by 33,754, mostly in the last 4 months of 2023).

Overall births are running at 5.3% lower than 2022 levels. I believe that this still reflects under-registration of births, and that final birth rate will be similar to 2022. However, the drop off in births in the last 4 months of 2023 likely represents a real trending of rapidly declining births that will warrant close attention in 2024.

For this release, registered deaths increased by 15,143 deaths (mostly in last Q4).

I am not convinced that the end of 2023 drop in deaths is a real drop, I believe it is due to late registrations, particularly from provincial regions.

Considering that the delays in registration will be mainly from provincial centers, I looked specifically at VS from the National Capital Region (NCR) to give an indication of probable final trending for 2023. NCR shows deaths in 2023 are 4.3% higher than 2022 levels, which is a very concerning trending. Somewhat reassuring are the birth rates which are 2.4% higher than 2022 levels and do not show any end of year drop.

I also looked at Quezon City, a highly populous city, which boasted of over 100% Covid-19 vaccine uptake under its Mayor Joy Balmonte. Their 2023 registered deaths run at 5.2% higher than 2022 levels, while their births have increased by 3.4%.

In terms of overall population growth impacts, Philippines natural population increase has been dropping steadily since 2012. This accelerated since the rollout of Covid-19 vaccines in 2021.

Monthly natural increase is plotted. The August 2021 death spike resulted in the lowest ever population increase, with trending thereafter dropping.

Cause of death data shows that lifestyle diseases are the predominant causes of death, even while deaths from Tuberculosis, infectious diseases and even malnutrition continue. A devastating combination of both developed and developing world (poverty-related) disease.

These are deaths by count. 2021 counts are very high due to the 43.2% excess deaths in that year.

COD as % of contribution to cause of death are also shown. Nearly 20% of deaths are due to ischemic heart disease (heart attack). 45.8% of deaths are due to the top 4 causes which are all linked to lifestyle (diet, activity, pharmaceuticals, environmental). This health trending is alarming and comes at great personal and societal cost. It should trigger public health interventions! Will it?

The 2024 data should start releases within the next 2 months. This data will be critical for assessing ongoing trending. Philippines is not escaping the global excess deaths and falling births trend, which may be linked to catastrophically worsened population health.