2021 Vital Statistics Released on 13 August 2022 Are Effective As Of March 2022.

Confirming that the 2021 vital statistics are still under compilation.

Last 13 August 2022, the Philippines Statistics Office (PSA) released 2021 vital birth and death statistics, summarized in the PSA infographics presented below.

These data were not provided with effectivity date. Effectivity date of data is important because it takes months for population data to be collected and compiled by regional offices, before it is submitted to PSA for their compilation. The final schedule for 2021 population data to be issued is January 2023, one year after close of 2021.

Effectivity date for these 13 August 2022 data release was requested via FOI request. The FOI release confirmed that the 13 August 2022 release compiles vital statistics as of March 2022.

The increase in registered vital statistics between the prior cut off date of 28 Feb 2022 and March 2022, a 1 month difference, as released in August was 26,355 deaths and 55,138 births. The birth situation considerably improved, while the excess death situation worsened.

This FOI simply proves that the 2021 data currently available is not yet complete. Further considerable registrations of both deaths and births will be expected once the 2021 data is finally compiled as of 31 December 2022.

The following figure, where I have broken down daily average deaths by month with reference to covid-19 deaths (as reported by DOH), historical deaths with reference to the previous year same month, and excess deaths shows clearly that the end of 2021 and early 2022 pattern still appears incomplete.

The latest trending for births and deaths with year on year change, and also set against forecast (using 20-year historical data) is set out. Births will improve in the final data set. Deaths will worsen.

It is surely a great challenge for the PSA to collect and compile complete data from all the regional offices! Yet, never has compilation of complete data ever been more important. Further critical data, showing the breakdown of deaths by age-group will also be released in January 2023.

Thank you PSA for your essential work, as you complete this vital task! All researchers and citizens following your data are looking forward to the next updated release!