2023 Vital Statistics, preliminary for January to September, effective for registrations received to PSA by 30 November, released on 28th February 2024.
New release of 2023 data too provisional to draw final conclusions. While births appear to be somewhat stabilizing, deaths are trending towards 10% higher than 2022 levels. IHD as COD rising sharply.
PSA released updated 2023 vital statistics, the 6th release of 2023 data, today. It may be observed that 2023 deaths are already running well above 2022 levels. My gut feeling is that final deaths for 2023 will end up close to 10% higher than 2022. Another black swan event! Quite concerning that there has never yet been any return to pre-2021 death levels, NO evidence yet of any pull forward effect, only continuing mounting excess deaths.
Birth data is also released. 2023 births are currently running at higher than 2022 levels, though still well below 2019 (the last normal year) levels.
This plot shows monthly births. It is still too early (too many late registrations pending) to know if the apparent trending of births just higher than 2022 levels, continues. Note: given the population demographics with majority of population in or entering reproductive years, slow rises in birth rates would still be reasonably expected in the normal scheme of things. Time will tell!
2023 Cause of Death data for the same period (Jan-Sept) was also released. Raw numbers cannot be compared with 2022, as the data is still incomplete. However, the % contribution deaths and change over time can be assessed. The leading 3 leading causes of death are still Ischemic Heart Disease (IHD), Neoplasms and Cerebrovascular Diseases. However, the relative % contribution for these two leading causes of deaths are both rising. 18.3% to 19% for IHD in 2023 compared to 2022 represents a nearly 4% increase in Ischemic Heart Disease as COD in just 1 year. How can Filipino be getting so unhealthy, so quickly! Of course, rhetorical question. My readers and I know the most probable answer, though lifestyle (check purchases in shopping carts and another contributor becomes abundantly clear) will also play a role.
Since 2017 IHD has risen from 14.5% to 19%. That is a 31% increase in just 7 years! Not a positive health trending.
Covid-19 has dropped to become a minor cause of death. In 2023, Covid-19 Identified deaths accounted for 1,992 and Covid-19, virus not identified deaths accounted for only 587 deaths. Compare this with 26,654 pneumonia deaths, even at the still post-pandemic suppressed levels, and the irrelevance of Covid-19 as an infection of grave concern becomes apparent.
It is the end of February and PSA have only released data effective as of 30 November 2023 (with NO November data therein). Here’s to hoping (PSA are you watching?) that PSA might speed up their data releases. Ideally, the end of February release, should reflect data effective as of the end of the prior month (31 January 2024). Data is critical for understanding what is happening. No data is like driving in the dark at night blindfolded! PSA you have an important role to play. Please live up to your transparency seal!
Knowing what I now know about hot lots and long-term sequelae, I am saddened, but not at all surprised that the 2023 deaths are generally trending higher than 2022 deaths, that there are rising deaths from IHD and Neoplasms. Heart disease and cancers are already well recognized as C-19 vaccine sequelae.
We still may be at the tip of the breaking wave of deaths and injuries. We must not forget what normal death levels looked like pre-2020/2021!
What we are seeing now is NOT normal! Further, excess deaths appear to be still rising and birth rates slowing. We must find ways to help the living who have been affected to stay well. We must find ways to move forward with compassion and dignity, strong in our rights, and requiring responsibility from all members of society, particularly those who aspire to be leaders.
Pray as if all outcomes depended on God. Work as if it all depended on us! Credit to Legal Light Workers for this epitaph.