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3.46x Increase in Covid-Attributed Deaths in the 12 months after 1st March 2021 - Series No. 3
Consensus has been that Alpha, Delta and Omicron Covid-19 Variants were in turn each less pathogenic though more contagious. Deaths increased by 1.4 to 19x in the 12 months following vaccine rollout.
The covid-19 vaccines were eagerly awaited as the means to the end of the Covid-19 pandemic. Although these were soon found to be non-sterilizing, i.e. not able to prevent infection or transmission, it was anticipated that they would prevent serious illness. This is what the alpha, delta and omicron waves looked like in the Philippines, the “delta” wave had far higher deaths than the initial alpha wave. The delta wave coincided with the country-wide C-19 vaccine rollout.
In the Philippines Covid-19 vaccine rollout started officially 1st of March 2021 to health care workers and vulnerable persons. The rollout to the entire population proceeded by 3rd quarter 2021.
I compared the Covid-19 attributed deaths in the first 12 months of the pandemic up to 28 February 2021 to the deaths in the second 12-months from 1st March 2021 up to the last data available for March 2022 (DOH 26 March 2022 data drop). Average increase in deaths comparing these two periods was 3.46x, with a range from 1.4x in NCR up to 19.18x in Cagayan. There were far more deaths attributed to the milder “delta wave” than from the original alpha wave. The curves are also different, being sharp sudden rises (except in Cebu where the rise happened only in July).
It would appear that these safe and effect products, promised to end the pandemic did not deliver their promise! Sharp increases in deaths, attributed to C-19, coincided with the vaccine rollouts. We do not know whether the vaccines worsened covid-19 illness, or whether the vaccine adverse events (AEs) were being coded as Covid-19 deaths. This could not be readily medically checked as cremation was mandated for any covid-attributed deaths. Serious questions on whether the vaccines were implicated in the rise of deaths are raised. These questions urgently require a response!
Figures setting out the findings by region graphically are provided below for reference. Note that this data is still preliminary because there are considerable delays in reporting; even today 100s of additional deaths “from covid-19” are being reported, but dated back to mid-2020. The new data, when it is available, will likely worsen the graphic presentations set out below.
The CAR omicron peak nearly matched the delta peak!
NCR has quite different curves from other regions, with a much larger alpha rise. Was this related to treatment protocols? There was also a markedly biphasic Delta spike!
Similar to other provincial regions, Illocos showed almost no alpha spike, only a very slight gentle curve. It also showed a sharp biphasic delta spike, as did quite a few other regions. How does the second phase of this spike relate to the vaccine rollout to the general population in 3rd quarter of 2021?
Cebu shows an initial low curve for delta which is what would be expected for a more contagious but less pathogenic variant. This low curve was then followed by a sudden high spike, quite delayed compared to other provinces. Notably, vaccine rollout was delayed in Cebu due to vaccine hesitancy. The second small sharp spike of 163 deaths from 18-22 October 2021 was discussed in a separate post (Series 2) a few days ago.