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After Mass Excess Deaths in 2021 (43.2% Overall), Excess Deaths Compared to 2020 Continue in All Regions in 2022 (Except NCR). Excess Deaths Across 2021 and 2022 will Exceed 306,660 Persons.
I have given a breakdown of excess deaths by regions, and show the patterns of excess deaths. These patterns of death are not natural, are unprecedented, and would be indicative of an external cause.
All data presented is directly extracted from Philippines Statistics Authority, latest data as of 26 June 2023.
After massive excess deaths in 2021 (265,493 excess deaths), the 2022 deaths showed a deficit. However, this deficit was only against 2021. When compared against 2020, which did not have excess deaths, to date there are 6.5% (40,167) excess deaths in 2022. This gives total excess deaths over 2021 and 2022 of at least 305,660 persons, in still preliminary data.
I wanted to see if the same pattern applied across all regions of the Philippines.
Please note that both 2021 and 2022 data are preliminary, each being effective as of 31 March of the following year. These will still be missing late registrations. Excess deaths presented in this document will get worse. I have summarized the by-region data for 2019 to 2022, highlighting excess deaths in red.
In 2020, the first year of the pandemic only 3 regions had excess deaths, with the highest rates of these being in BARMM (57.9%), followed by NCR (7.3%). In 2021 all regions had excess, with the excess ranging from 24.7% in NCR to 60.2% in Region II Cagayan Valley. In 2022 all regions had deficit deaths compared to 2021, which is not surprising given the massive excesses in 2021. However, all regions except NCR had excess deaths in 2022 compared to 2020. The excess deaths ranges from 2.1% in Ilocos Region to 19.4% in Eastern Visayas.
This are devastating data, showing that there has been no recovery from the assault which caused the excess deaths in 2021, and that the excess deaths are in effect continuing in 2022.
By region excess deaths is set out graphically. In most regions the excess deaths in 2021 started in March. Many regions showed biphasic peaks, with a second much higher peak in September. The factor causing the excess deaths must have ramped up in 3rd quarter of 2021.
As has been discussed in previous posts, this cannot be due to Covid-19 infections. Deaths from Covid-19 are too low to account for these excess deaths. The letters indicate dates for the start of rollout of various phases of the Covid-19 vaccination campaigns.
I have marked the peak excess deaths in 2021 vs. 2020. I have also put the 2021 and 2022 excess deaths percentages vs. 2020 in red for clear visualization.
NCR, unlike other regions, has it’s highest peak of excess deaths in the first half of the year. Excess deaths started in March 2021 and peaked in April 2021. There was a second high peak in 3rd Quarter of 2021 and into January of 2022.
CAR started excess deaths in March of 2021, but the peak in this first wave of deaths came later in April 2021.
Ilocos had increased deaths starting in March 2021, however, its first death wave peak came even later in May 2021, as can be observed for many regions.
For Region II, the first wave of deaths peak in May 2021. The second wave peaks in September 2021.
First peak of deaths in May 2021. Second peak in September 2021.
First peak of deaths in April 2021. Second peak in September 2021.
The first peak of deaths in Mimaropa Region came later, in May 2021. The second peak was also later in October 2021.
Region V and VI also had a different pattern to the first peak of deaths. Their first peak of deaths built up to June 2021. Their second peak was still in September 2021. It would be important to determine what happened differently in the regions where death patterns are different.
Region VII had only a small early peak in March 2021. Their excess deaths only began in earnest by July 2021. It would be important to determine any differences in acceptance of the imposed pandemic measures in this region.
Region VIII had a long peak that started slowly and accelerated into May and onwards.
BARMM stands out for having had mass excess deaths in 2020 as well as 2021. Excess deaths continue in 2022. Muslim leaders may consider investigation of the factors which have devastated the health of their population over the pandemic years.
I will start updating with 2023 data as soon as it is published by Philippines Statistics Authority, which should be soon.
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