Australia has had more than 51,000 excess deaths since 2020 and the start of the declared pandemic. 2022 had 25,546 excess deaths. 2023 to week 38 has apparently 12,172 excess deaths (10% excess).

Highest 2023 excess mortality is in the 75 to 84 age groups - 19% for women, 20% for men! ABS to adopt new baseline model & only biannual report. How to arrive at valid post-pandemic expected deaths?

Australian Bureau of Statistics released updated provisional mortality data for the first 38 weeks of 2023 on 20th December 2023. Deaths in August and September have dropped, after being similar to 2022 in earlier months.

For the Pandemic to date, Australia has apparently had 51,287 excess deaths.

2020 - had about 3,315 excess deaths vs. 2016-2019 average

2021 - had about 10,255 excess deaths vs. 2016-2019 average

2022 - had about 25,547 excess deaths vs. 2017-2019, 2021 average

2023 - has about 12,172 excess deaths in the first 38 weeks (10% excess).

I prepared breakdowns by gender and age: men overall showed 11% excess in 2023 to week 38, while women showed a 9% excess.

In terms of age breakdowns, the youngest population age groups (0-44) had overall -2% lower than expected deaths. However, this is breakdown to -4% excess in males (161 fewer deaths) and +2% excess in females (30 excess deaths). Highly concerning that young women are dying at higher-than-expected rates, even if the relative numbers are low.

Excess deaths occurred in all groups 45 and older. Males 46-64 have a 1% excess, while females have a 2%. Males 65-74 have an excess of 6%, while females have an 8.4% excess. Males 75-84 have an excess of 20%, while females have an excess of 17%. In the oldest groups of 85+, males have an excess of 14% while females have an excess of 7%. The very oldest groups may be having something of a pull forward effect, where excess death rates have gone down due to their being fewer vulnerable persons left to die.

ABS to Adopt new Predicted Deaths Baseline

ABS also reports that for hereon they will be using a new modelled baseline (we all know how great models have been over the past years) for expected deaths. This complex model will just be presented, with no way to check how it was arrived at and its validity. Pardon my skepticism, but now, excess deaths will occur if the Government says they do.

Mortality will only be reported at 6-month intervals. No need to worry the plebs about the normality of the deaths happening all around! Discussion of new method, here.

Modelling Expected Deaths

How can excess deaths be determined in the post-pandemic era? When there should be a pull-forward effect with fewer than typical deaths, any current baseline should have taken account of how many excess deaths have accrued and have not yet been compensated for.

If Australia has had 51,287 excess deaths since 2020, it is owed nearly 17 weeks with NO deaths to bring average deaths back to normal levels (pre-pandemic average weekly baseline deaths were 3,052). The Philippines, with 300+K excess deaths is owed 6 months with NO deaths to bring deaths back to normal averages. Surely this means, at least theoretically, that every single new death is already effectively excess!

Australia’s forecasting or prediction of baseline normal deaths needs to take into account the demographics of the Government’s massive immigration programme. Adding 518K persons (approx. 2% net annual gain) to a population of 26.6 million in 2022-2023 will have impacts on vital statistics (and explains housing, services and other growing societal challenges in Australia).

The topic of how to compute normal deaths should become a critical topic among the independent data gatherers in coming months. We must not normalize what are clearly very abnormal death rates.

Do we need a new model for expected deaths? Based on % of population jabbed, and age distribution of jabbing? Of course the situation is still under development. Normal is clearly no longer normal. The excess deaths are going to continue.