Australian All-Cause Mortality to November 2025 shows Deaths Remain Above Pre-2021 Levels, with Highest Ever Winter Deaths for Both Males and Females in 2025. Deaths spikes are highest among 65-84 YO.

Deaths in every state step-change rose following rollout of COVID-19 Vaccines

Provisional mortality statistics to November 2025 were released by ABS on 24 February 2026. I discussed this release and patterns of mortality by gender, age and across states with Graham Hood and John Larter of Club Grubbery on 9th April 2026.

Following are the slides and data that was presented, with a few additional slides that I had prepared but did not share during the discussion.

During the pandemic years ABS was releasing mortality data monthly. From August 2025 they have moved to releasing data every 3 months. The following slides shows all of the releases of 2025 data to date. Note that the first release of data is not the final release and deaths still increase in subsequent up to the final release, typically in the range of 300-400 additional deaths. Final 2025 death counts will be released in September 2026.

Australian mortality by year since 2019 and up to November 2025. Peak 2025 winter deaths exceed the 2024 peak, and deaths to November are up by 0.42%.

Breakdown of deaths over time. The rising winter death peak is clear.

My computation for excess deaths (deaths higher than would be expected) based on historical levels: 2020 expected deaths was calculated using an average of the 2015-2019 deaths, and 2021 to 2025 was calculated using excel forecast for 2015-2019 trending. This method gives 81,441 excess deaths. Regardless of the methodology of calculating excess deaths, deaths spiked with a step change following the rollout of the COVID-19 vaccines, and particularly following booster doses from late 2021, and has not returned to pre-jab levels.

Total COVID-19 vaccine uptake as of 1 Jan 2026 was 75.2 million doses. By state breakdown is shown.

Uptake in 2025, particularly the second half has fallen dramatically; few people want additional doses.

Male deaths are higher than female deaths, which is a typical pattern. However, the step change in deaths after February 2021 is consistent across both genders.

Deaths by age show some stabilization among young age-groups; this age group typically has low annual deaths anyway.

Deaths amongst middle-aged Australians is still showing new peaks in 2025.

Deaths among newly retired and younger seniors is showing rises among persons aged 65-74. This is particularly alarming because it shows that people are dying prematurely instead of reaching old age.

Deaths amongst the oldest Australians have fallen slightly though remain a step change higher than pre-2021 levels. Of course, if many are dying at earlier ages, there are fewer left to die later.

Lataster published a paper in February 2026 showing that examined the timing of excess mortality 4 Australian states which had short lockdowns and still allowed medical appointments; Queensland, Western Australia, South Australia, Northern Territory where the majority of population had received primary series COVID-19 Vaccines in 2021. His data (from ABS and Government COVID-19 case tracker) identified that COVID-19 deaths only became a concern in 2022, and that COVID-19 itself can’t explain most of the excess deaths

Key paper findings included:

•Excess mortality in 4 out of 8 major Australian regions (specifically named in secondary sources as Queensland, Western Australia, South Australia, and the Northern Territory).

•In these regions, excess deaths correlated temporally with rapid and high-uptake COVID-19 vaccination programs (reaching near-universal coverage among adults, often 89–92%+ in cited discussions).

•The excess mortality occurred BEFORE widespread/mass exposure to COVID-19 in those areas (there was only low circulation of the virus in 2021).

•Excess mortality also occurred in the absence of prolonged or highly restrictive lockdowns (brief or minimal restrictions compared to other regions).

The following slide shows Australian vaccine uptake and COVID-19 deaths. Note that the 3rd, highest, peak of COVID-19 deaths occurred after 93% of the population had received primary series. Subsequent waves occurred after more than half of the population had taken a booster dose.

The vaccines given to most of the population clearly did not provide protection. The waves of COVID-19 deaths that followed boosters is evidence that the vaccines destroyed any possibility of full natural immunity.

ABS own forecast of expected vs actual deaths shows the spikes following rollout; with my marking of start, 1st and 2nd booster doses.

Weekly deaths by state follow, with each state showing start of COVID-19 vaccination. The images speak for themselves.

If the government had looked at their own published data, with any intent of protecting the population, the experiment would have been over by mid-2021. Instead, it continues and consequences accumulate!

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