Australian Bureau of Statistics Provisional Mortality Data for Jan - April 2023 (Weeks 1-17) Released on 28 July 2023 Shows Continued Excess Deaths for 2023 at 6,220 or 12.3% above Baseline.

Younger men and women show low (or no) excess deaths in 2023. However, elderly men and women, particularly those aged 75-84, show excess deaths more than 20% above baseline.

The Australian Bureau of Statistics have released 2023 provisional mortality statistics for January to April 2023.

The ABS summarize the data, simply stating at the top of the page that deaths were 2.4% lower than in April 2022, and then announces Covid-19 deaths.

One has to read through to the bottom of the page to see the actual provisional death data. ABS have also made adjustment on how data is presented, comparing 2023 deaths with both deaths occurring in 2022 and a baseline period consisting of the average number of deaths occurring in the years of 2017-2019, 2021. ABS summarizes:-

For all deaths:

• In 2023, there were 56,869 deaths that occurred by 30 April and were registered by 30 June. This is 6,220 deaths (12.3%) more than the baseline average, but 3,050 (5.1%) less than in 2022.

• In April 2023 there were 14,495 deaths, 12.2% more than the baseline average but 2.4% less than in 2022.

• 12,708 of the deaths occurring in April 2023 were doctor certified and 1,787 were coroner referred.

• The age-standardised death rate (SDR) for April was 40.3 deaths per 100,000 people, lower than the baseline average (40.6) and the rate for 2022 (42.6). 

Deaths are presented by counts only. Counts of death do not account for changes in population. See data downloads for weekly and monthly age-standardised death rate calculations. 

Week 1 - 17 Provisional Mortality Presentation by Age and Gender

I have prepared the data using a slightly different presentation than that of ABS. I used a continuous 5-year baseline period of 2016 - 2020. I saw no reason to exclude 2020 from baseline. I then used the 2016-2020 baseline to present in comparison to 2021, 2022, and 2023 deaths. Regardless of method, the fact of continuing excess deaths in 2023, lower than 2022, but still higher than 2021 and prior years is indisputable.

My methodology shows 14% overall excess mortality in 2023 (6,784 excess) from weeks 1 - 17, reduced from 20% in 2022 (9,800 excess), though increased from the 2,650 excess deaths (+5%) in 2021. The excess deaths in 2023 appear to be continuing without any downward trending.

Males (all ages) fared worse than females, with higher % of excess deaths in every year compared.

While young men had an 11% excess in the first 17 weeks of 2022, they had lower than my calculated baseline (2016-2020) deaths in both 2021 and 2023; relative numbers are small, as this age-group has historically had overall low death rates.

Elderly men fared far worse than younger men. While all men aged 75 and older did equally badly in 2022 with 29% excess deaths, the 85+ age group fared slightly better than the 75-84 group in 2023 (perhaps the most vulnerable already died in 2022?).

Younger women, after showing excess deaths in 2022, are not showing overall excess deaths in the 2023 data to date.

Older women are showing similar, though slightly lower excess deaths, than older men with excess deaths for the first 17 weeks of both 2022 and 2023 showing similar levels.

There is a drop-off in the excess deaths in very elderly women in 2023. Perhaps the vulnerable had already died in 2022.

This data set is from January to the end of April 2023, just prior to winter. Australian winters are typically mild; however, winter is still the highest mortality period in Australia. Deaths from May through to August / September typically rise. There has been no recovery from the overall excess deaths (i.e., no compensatory deficit deaths) in 2023. Thus, the assault that has caused the excess deaths must still be acting on the population.

Of course, that assault has arisen from the pandemic measures AND the Covid-19 vaccines. Medium term sequelae are accumulating; cardiac, oncological, neurological. Most concerningly the total numbers of deaths from other cardiac deaths and cancer were higher in 2023 than 2022, even though 2022 had higher overall deaths. The ABS report showed: -

• Dementia deaths from January to April 2023 were 15.4% above baseline average.

• Other cardiac deaths from January to April 2023 were 15.4% higher than baseline average and 0.5% higher than the same period in 2022.

• Diabetes deaths from January to April 2023 were 16.8% higher than baseline average.

• Deaths due to cancer from January to April 2023 were 6.8% above baseline average and 0.4% above the same period in 2022.

• Respiratory diseases deaths from January to April 2023 were 5.3% above baseline average.

• In 2023, Ischaemic heart disease deaths were 5.7% below baseline, and cerebrovascular disease deaths were 5.2% below baseline average.

ABS Reducing Frequency of Data Release from August 2023

From August 2023, the ABS is now reducing comprehensive data drops to only every second month.