Australian Bureau of Statistics Released 2026 Provisional Mortality to February on 29 May 2026 with deaths similar to 2025 levels. 2025 Full Year Provisional Mortality Rose 0.6% vs. 2024.
Not much to see except for slowly rising elderly deaths and apparently stabilized young deaths.
The first tranche of 2026 Australian death data, along with 2025 data to December, were released by ABS on 29 May 2026.
Updated figures on historical weekly and monthly deaths from 2015 to 2025 were also provided. Single digit changes were made for the years 2015 to 2018, double digit additions for 2019 (+11) to 2022 (+74), and triple digits for 2023 (+182) and 2024 (+937). The added deaths for 2024 raise the yearly change from 2023 from +1.7% to +2.1%. 2025 data was completed with the addition of December deaths.
2026 Provisional Mortality Data
January and February, the peak summer months in Australia, are typically the lowest death months. There were 27,941 deaths reported for January and February 2026, just marginally lower (0.4%) than registered deaths in 2025. Early 2026 deaths will certainly rise above 2025 levels once delayed registrations are compiled with typically 200-350 deaths added from the first to the last monthly release.
Weekly deaths to week 8, 2026 are set out. Weekly deaths are fairly similar to 2025 levels with weekly variation ranging from -4.1 to + 3.1%.
2025 Provisional Mortality Data
There were 188,156 deaths reported in 2025, a rise of 0.6% vs. 2024. 2025 deaths will rise further as late registrations are added. Formal reporting of 2025 deaths is expected on 2 October 2026.
Monthly mortality is set out. Peak deaths rose to their highest level in 2025. Deaths in July, September, October, and November were at their highest historical levels. The step change in mortality since rollout of COVID-19 vaccination and particularly booster dosing, is maintained.
How many excess deaths?
Using MS Excell to forecast expected mortality from 2021 to 2026 on the basis of historical trending, I estimated 85,571 excess deaths since 2021. The exact count may be debated, with other researchers arriving at higher or lower losses, but nevertheless all devastating.
Do not discount that elevated mortality comes secondary to elevated population morbidity. To have had this many people dying prematurely, there is a magnitude more of people whose health is failing.
Deaths by Gender and Age
Males and females have distinctly different patterns of deaths, with females having a longer life expectancy (and more dying at older ages) than males. These two figures are plotted with the same scale.
Young males die at nearly double the rate of young females, with the balance only being redressed in the oldest age cohorts 85+ reflecting extended female survival.
Death counts in 2025 have fallen among younger people but are still rising among older people: the largest rises in deaths are among women aged 65 to 74 (+3.3%), and 75 to 84 (+2.1%), and among men aged 75-84 (+2.1%).
0-44 population: 7,976 deaths (-2.6% vs. 2024: males -3.5%; females: -0.9%)
45-64 population: 21,933 deaths (-1.7% vs. 2024: males -1.6%; females: -1.9%)
65-74 population: 29,148 deaths (+0.7% vs. 2024: males -1.1%; females: +3.3%)
75-84 population: 52,437 deaths (+2.1% vs. 2024: males +2.0%; females: +2.1%)
85+ population: 76,660 deaths (+0.5% vs. 2024: males +0.5%; females: +0.6%
These changes are relatively small; how much are due to aging population, and how much are due to underlying poor health?
Please also bear in mind that all of these data are death counts, not death rates: changing population structure (mass migration) will impact mortality data trending (a larger population is expected to have more deaths but not necessarily higher death rates).
Age specific deaths rates for 2025 were presented in the ABS report, clipped below. Death rates in 2025 were reported as lower in all age-groups, except for women aged 65-74 who had death rates higher than both 2023 and 2024. Failure to compare recent with pre-pandemic death rates could be misleading. Death rates are only presented for the “new normal”.
Next release of ABS data might be in 3 months; schedule for next release is currently listed as unknown.
May be slightly off topic for you Sally but I follow this writer "csofand" who is looking at statistics in the US. They show manipulation and erasure. This article by Dave Shohl is a good summary which may interest you.
https://david3m2yw.substack.com/p/monkey-business
Look at this;
"Csofand’s second finding was that the states whose pension funds were rated lowest in terms of solvency and financial performance had some of the highest death numbers from 2021 onwards."
"There was a reoccurring statistic that caught my attention … investment gains. Just as lots of members of these pension systems were officially dying off from “covid,” simultaneously the asset sheets were getting replenished with unheard of stock market gains. These two things were consistently popping up in tandem with the statistics from fiscal year 2021."
"There were 188,156 deaths reported in 2025'
A long way from the 2015-19 average of 160k.
And no reductions following increases as previously happened after bad flu years. Where the drop back is caused by the earlier deaths, ie you can't die twice. I hope that makes sense.