Bulacan Province, Central Luzon, Philippines Vital Statistics Showed Nothing of Note in 2020, a Mass Spike in Deaths in 2021 (+51%), and Upward Trending Deaths and Rapidly Falling Births Thereafter.

Population Natural Increase (Births - Deaths) dropped by 27% from 2019 to 2023. If 2024 preliminary data hold, Natural Increase in 2024 could drop to less than half of 2019 levels.

I often get requested to provide an assessment of population outcomes for various provinces. I was asked to prepare a review of data for Bulacan Province by a person involved in education who is worried that dropping births may affect operations of his schools. The data is too concerning not to share. I consider that a similar situation is likely unravelling across all provinces in the Philippines.

Bulacan had a population of 3.7 million in 2020. It is one of the well-developed and more prosperous provinces of the Philippines, and is known for national heroes, artists, agricultural including aquaculture, meat and meat products, high-value crops, sweets and native delicacies, marble, jewelry, pyrotechnics, and leather. Its rich cultural heritage makes it a popular tourist destination.

Births in Bulacan have been slowly decreasing over time, and deaths increasing. Birth and death rates in 2020, the first pandemic year were unremarkable. However, 2021, the first year of covid-19 vaccine rollouts, evidenced a highly abnormal spike in deaths and an unprecedented drop in births. 2021 cannot be complete. The PSA stopped compiling late registrations by March of 2022, instead of continuing late registration compilation until August 2022 (in all other years late registrations continue for at least 9 months after the close of year). This means that the births in 2021 should be better than the data shows; but the deaths could be far worse.

Monthly vital statistics data are shown across time from 2019 through to mid-2024. Deaths jumped and births started falling at an accelerated rate in March 2021, coincidental with the rollout of Covid-19 vaccines.

Deaths post-2021 are a step level higher than pre-pandemic levels and appear to be rising over time. Deaths did not show any recovery or dip after the 2021 excess; no evidence of a pull-forward effect where the fact of people dying prematurely should have meant compensatory fewer deaths in following months / years): it appears that the population has become newly susceptible to higher than usual deaths.

Deaths in August and September 2021 were more than 2x higher than usual levels. 2024 data is concerning as deaths are running well above 2023 levels in most of the first months of the year. Death data will rise further as late registrations are compiled.

The birth data is far more worrying. Observe that monthly births in the second half of 2023 are already lower than all prior levels. Then, in the first months of 2024, births are on average 16.5% lower than 2023 levels; births may improve somewhat with the addition of late registrations but will likely still remain well below 2023 levels.

If preliminary 2024 data from Jan-May holds for the rest of the year, Bulacan will see a 6.5% increase in deaths and a 16.5% drop in births in 2024 compared to 2023.

Natural population growth in 2024 could continue its rapid drop with an 8,207 loss of population since 2023, comprised of 1,726 additional deaths and 6,481 fewer registered live births.

Overall, since 2019, if realized in final 2024 data, there could be in the range of a 22.6% increase in deaths and a 22.5% decrease in births in Bulacan; a 53.8% drop in annual population increase in just 5 years.

All of the industries surrounding raising children are facing considerable market drops in coming years. My friend who requested this data is rightfully concerned about the numbers of children who will attend his school in coming years. We should also be concerned about the health and fitness of surviving children; their ability to be productive members of society!