Catastrophic Reduction in Fertility Rate from 2.7 in 2017 to 1.9 in 2022, to 1.5 in 2024 Reported by Commission on Population and Development on 5th April 2024.

30% of the population are aged 0-14, 52% aged 15 to 49. Population momentum alone should give continued population growth. Is infertility adding to fiscal and social pressures reducing births?

CPD Stated that Philippines Fertility Rate has Dropped to 1.5

Division Chief of Commission on Population and Development said on Friday 5th April 2024 that the total fertility rate in the Philippines stands at 1.5 children per woman. She put a positive spin somehow inferring that this means there are more working adults to support the fewer children, which would give better outcomes for those kids and society.

I consider this fertility trending is anything but positive. With escalating deaths and falling births, the Philippines can look forward to population stagnation followed soon after by population contraction, with closing schools and loss of workforce in the very near future. I expect well before 2030. These trending will be made worse as other nations, facing their own population collapse, aggressively recruit Filino migrants.

Following is the (mostly Tagalog language) interview where the drop in fertility was discussed, apparently incidentally, as an aside to discussing teenage pregnancies and a new bill (HB8910) currently with the senate which is aiming to provide reproductive health services and support to young adolescents to help in reducing teenage pregnancies, and to support teenage parents to finish education. I have not been able to find any official government publications supporting statement about the drop in fertility that Ms. Quiray referred to.

The following news article reports on the (small) rise in pregnancies, an additional 815 compared to 2021’s 2,320 births, in girls aged younger than 15. Some of this increase may also be attributed to the increase in size of the 10-14 age cohort, which is currently the nation’s largest population cohort (see population age breakdown below).

Rapidly Dropping Registered Births Hint at Coming Population Collapse

Philippines has been having year on year dropping registered births since 2012.

There has been a 13.1% drop in total registered live births between 2019 and 2022. 2021 showed the biggest drop, but this at least partly still reflects late registrations; some of children may only be registered when formal documents are required for school entry.

2023 births appear to be trending below 2022 births by 3rd quarter 2023, in still preliminary data. No 2024 data has been released yet.

If the most recent drop in fertility referred to by CPD is confirmed, it is absolutely catastrophic for the Philippines, and represents a quickening of population fertility decline (Fertility = no. of children per woman in her lifetime, 2.1 being replacement level). PSA 2022 data indicated that fertility had dropped from 2.7 in 2017 to 1.9 in 2022. A further drop to 1.5 in 2024 is very worrying.

In 2020, 52% of the Philippines population were within reproductive age, and 30% were yet to reach it. Simply based on population distribution, the Philippines should not be having (such dramatic) declining births.

Live Births by Maternal Age Show Women are Delaying Starting Their Family

While early teenage registered live births were relatively higher in 2022 compared to 2021 (+815), and the % of registered births in children younger than 15 increased from 0.14% in 2019 to 0.22% in 2022, older teenage (15-19) registered births dropped from 10.7% of all pregnancies in 2019 to 10.1% in 2022.

Congruent with the generally dropping births, total births in all age groups (aside from the < 15 yo cohort) have been falling over time.

Examining the % of total births by age-group, only the 15 and younger, and the 25 to 39 age-groups have increasing % of registered births, indicating that school age and young working-age women are having fewer babies.

These discussed birth data are from 2022. That is 16 months ago. CPD’s indication that fertility has dropped to 1.5 in 2024 makes it likely that birthrates will continue to drop rapidly!

Does Infertility / Inability to Bear Children Contribute to Falling Births?

The elephant in the room, which is infertility is avoided in the following recent article which discusses financial and practical reasons for reduced birth rates. It quotes a 2% increase in use of contraceptives, from 40 to 42% between 2017 and 2022. But that 2% increase in contraceptive use must be set against a 14.4% drop in registered live births in the same period. The math doesn’t tally!

The Elephant in the Room

Worldwide, infant health is declining, and fertility is plummeting.

The Philippines Commission on Population and Development needs to raise the alarm that population collapse is rapidly approaching. The Government will ideally assess, develop and aggressively implement policies that support families and children.

Anything detrimental to pediatric health, well-being and optimal development must be avoided. Medical interventions, including vaccination of all types, need to be critically reassessed on whether they really add health, or whether they cause harm.

I have shared this before; I will share it yet again! Under lockdowns far fewer children died in the Philippines than in prior years. Note that only children aged 5 and older were eligible for Covid-19 vaccination, in late 2021 for 12 and above, and into 2022 for children aged 5 and older.

What was it about the lack of access to medical care in 2020 and to a lesser extent in 2021 that prevented infant and pediatric deaths? Why did deaths rise again when catch up vaccination programs were reintroduced and pushed hard in 2022? For every child that dies from a particular cause, a far greater number may be harmed / prevented from optimal health and lifetime full potential!

I claim that the excess deaths and change in death patterns are greatly contributed by Covid-19 and routine vaccinations. I can’t see any other explanation. If I am wrong, then prove me wrong!

DOH where is your scientific curiosity? The uncritically accepted dogma of vaccination must be challenged! Every child is precious and must not be sacrificed. Of course, all other measures supporting wellness must be supported. Our future depends on it!