[COPY] Are Excess Deaths Due to Missed Health Care During Pandemic Years? Detailed discussion to Show That This Argument Holds No Water! Healthy Filipinos Who Didn't Need to Access Medical Care Died.
Summary of Philippines Vital Statistics from 2021 through into 2023 for Assessment of Population Outcomes over pandemic years. The only rational explanation for excess deaths are the EUA Vaccines.
INTRODUCTION
This paper uses Philippine population vital statistics from the Philippines Statistics Authority (PSA) as a forensic tool to examine and explain the excess deaths that are observed in 2021, 2022 and which appear to be continuing into 2023. It will show that the Philippine Department of Health’s claim that the observed excess deaths are due to missed medical screenings and are natural outcomes of untreated comorbidities is not rational. An alternative explanation must be sought.
The only logical, rational explanation, is that these excess deaths and the underlying tsunami of poor health and new medical conditions which may contribute to shortened quality and quantity of life of recipients, is due to the Covid-19 vaccination campaign which was, effectively, mandated on the population of the Philippines.
Some 78 million Filipinos are known to have received Covid-19 vaccines. This represents some 71% of the nation’s population1.
Given the number of Filipinos who have taken these Covid-19 vaccine products, the deliberations and discussions in this paper are of vital importance, both to individuals, their families, and to the nation.
The intent of this paper is not to point fingers, though accountability for public health actions will be required; this is about providing an early warning so that the government can deal with an unfolding health catastrophe and ensure that the factors that allowed this to happen will never come into effect again. World-wide, concerned leaders, experts, and citizen experts are attempting to raise the alarm on what they see as a mass depopulation event, which can only be explained by the Covid-19 vaccinations.
There are current global estimates of 17 million dead2, and many times more than that with devastated health and facing imminent premature deaths.
The Philippines Congress and health leaders are called upon to acknowledge what has happened, to clearly identify the causes, and to plan actions to address the crisis.
MAIN DISCUSSIONS
I. Definition of Excess Deaths
Excess deaths is a recognized epidemiological term, which describes levels of population deaths which are higher in any period than a reference baseline for that same period.
Excess Deaths = Recorded deaths – Baseline Deaths
There are different methods of arriving at baseline deaths. These can include the prior 5-year average deaths, population adjusted death rates, just the prior year, or a forecast projection.
The Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA) typically refers to the prior year when describing each subsequent year’s mortality levels. In the Philippines, where deaths have been consistently rising from year to year as the populations grows and ages, a 5-year baseline will skew upwards any estimate of excess deaths. A better baseline for the Philippines will be the prior year, population adjusted rates, and/or projected deaths based on 5-year normal pattern.
For simplicity of presentation, this report has assumed the prior year as a baseline for all years up to and including 2021. 2021, being massively abnormal, cannot be used as a baseline for 2022 and 2023. Thus, 2020 is still used as the baseline for both of these years.
Trending and patterns may be considered more important than absolute percentages; 2021 shows massively increased excess deaths far beyond any historical precedent, irrespective of which baseline is assumed.
II. Pull Forward Effect / Death Debt Recovery
Vital statistics in a healthy population are typically stable and show only small changes over time reflecting demographic changes. People are born, and die, at predictable rates and levels from month to month and year to year. Periods of high deaths, caused by normal factors (extreme heat or cold, seasonal illnesses), wherein vulnerable people die earlier than they would otherwise have been expected to, are always followed by periods of lower than usual deaths, while a new population vulnerable to death builds up. This is known as the “pull forward effect” and may be viewed as a death debt recovery.
The only exceptions to this principle are observed when external causes kill persons who should not die: natural disaster, war, mass poisoning, mass civil unrest.
The patterns of deaths observed in 2021 and onwards are not consistent with natural causes. To date there has been no recovery from the massive excess deaths. Instead, excess deaths are continuing, albeit at a lower level, and they appear to be increasing again in preliminary 2023 data! Not only did people who should not have died die, people who should not be dying continue to die! The factor(s) causing excess deaths is still actively killing Filipinos.
III. Who is Vulnerable to Death when Health Care Services are Disrupted?
If access to medical care is disrupted, but without accompanying famine or mass civil unrest, the main persons affected will be those persons who already have severe and advanced health comorbidities dependent on medication and/or surgical and other interventions for survival; these are typically people in late middle-age and old age. These are the same people who were at highest risk of fatal outcomes from Covid-19 infection.
Outside of emergency care to respond to accidental injury or occasional acute infection-related conditions, and obstetric care during pregnancy and delivery, young and healthy people generally do not need to access medical care. They don’t need screening, they don’t have medical conditions, and they do not die from lack of access to medical care. If they die in excess for any reason, this must be observed as a critical alarm signal.
IV. Patterns of Deaths Over the Pandemic Years
Historical death patterns from 2000 to 2020 show a typical year on year variation in deaths of not more than 5%, with an average change of 2.6% and a standard deviation of 1.9%.
There were no overall excess deaths in 2020. However, 2021 showed an unprecedented 43.9% increase over prior years (updated PSA data via special release), which is 23x higher than prior standard deviations. A 10% increase in all-cause mortality is considered an outlier, a catastrophic black swan event! What is 43.9%? Why has it warranted only passing mention by POPCOM, PSA, government, and mainstream media? Why has there been no alarm or investigation?
Looking at monthly deaths by year, it may be observed that there were no overall excess deaths in 2020 compared to 2019, and into early 2021 prior to the Covid-19 vaccination rollout. However, population deaths increased in parallel and direct proportion with the Covid-19 vaccination delivery (Figure 3).
Note that the 2021 PSA death data still appears to be incomplete, particularly for 4th quarter registrations, despite recent updates from PSA. 2021 late registrations up to 31 December 2022 (12 months from close of year should be allowed for compilation), are far lower than the 2022 late registrations received by 31 July 2023 (Figure 4). Final 2022 vital statistics data were issued in February 2024, and 2023 data is preliminary.
The sudden increase in deaths observed in the Philippines’ overall registered deaths for 2021, is observed across all regions of the Philippines (Figure 5), with most regions showing two distinct spikes; the first matching initial vaccine rollouts, and the second with the mass push to general population vaccination. Different regions show different initial rises in deaths. Regions with high vaccine hesitancy (and lower initial uptake until the issue was forced) have later starts to the excess deaths and build more slowly to peak deaths. The second wave of deaths occurred in late-July in every jurisdiction. Something specific must have caused these deaths, which must reflect an external cause. Perhaps some form of unseen toxicity, as there were no natural disasters, social unrest, wars, or any conditions to explain why so many people, across all ages, should suddenly die.
While the excess deaths in 2021 and 2022 affected all ages, the nation’s senior citizens fared worst, showing up to 63% excess deaths in 2021.
The senior citizens weren’t protected by the pandemic response in 2021, they died in massive excess. As presented in prior materials, most of these deaths couldn’t be accounted for by Covid-19 which represented only about 1/6th of the total excess deaths. The continued deaths in 2022 cannot be explained by Covid-19 which had already become endemic but with few deaths. PSA data, which is higher than DOH because it includes both confirmed and assumed cases and is data extracted from death certificates, shows < 2.7% of all deaths in 2022, were attributed to Covid-19.
2020 Registered All-Cause Mortality
There were no overall excess deaths in 2020 compared to 2019. A closer examination of deaths by year and age (Figure 7) shows that late middle-aged adults, some of whom do need to use medical care for management of health conditions did die in very slightly higher than usual numbers. This group would have included people with severe metabolic conditions, cancers, or other advanced chronic illnesses, who were also susceptible to death from Covid-19 infection. The DOH is correct that lack of access to medical care can accelerate deaths; this was demonstrated in 2020 as a very subtle effect on specific population age groups.
Notes on Figure 7:
Babies younger than 1 showed a big drop in ACM in 2020. This has risen in both 2021 and 2022 but has not risen above 2019 levels. Could this be due to lack of access to well-child visits during lockdowns?
Children aged 1 to 9 showed a big drop in ACM in 2020, with a rise in 2021 followed by a small drop in 2022. 2022 levels remain below 2019 ACM.
Only late middled aged person (50-74) showed slight increases in ACM in 2020 (untreated comorbidities & Covid-19 susceptibility?)
Babies and children died at much lower rates than usual in 2020 when they did not have access to health care. While some of this drop may have been due to fewer accidents, there was also less access to healthcare if and when emergency care was required. Regardless, young people were somehow protected despite that lack of health care! Iatrogenic deaths are deaths caused by medical interventions. These are the 3rd leading cause of deaths in the US. Could removal of iatrogenic causes have resulted in such a reduction in deaths in young healthy people in 2020?
The very elderly also died at much lower than usual rates in 2020; perhaps having reached extreme old age already meant they were fundamentally healthy. Further, they were the group most likely to be benefited by the use of lockdowns to prevent infectious exposure (focused protection).
2021 Registered All-Cause Mortality
Only children younger than 10 years of age showed lower than pre-pandemic death counts in 2021. These are also the only group that was not offered Covid-19 vaccination in 2021; vaccination of ages 5 to 11 having only started in February 2022.
A breakdown of the 2021 and later deaths by age and month (Figure 8), shows that the climb in excess deaths in across all ages was very sudden, starting in March of 2021 and with mass acceleration in August to September of 2021.
These spikes must be due to trigger event(s)! They cannot be due to a slowly accruing deterioration of health as postulated by DOH. The only rational and temporally related trigger event is the mass Covid-19 vaccination.
2022 Registered All-Cause Mortality
There has been no recovery from the 2021 excess deaths in 2022. The anticipated “pull forward effect” or “death debt recovery” whereby periods of excess deaths are followed by periods of death deficit (regression back to the average) did not happen.
While deaths did apparently drop from their unprecedented peaks at the end of 2021, they remained well above the 2020 pre-pandemic baseline. 2022 excess deaths, referenced against 2020, stand at 10.7% in the provisional data which compiles late registrations up to 31 July 2023. Another black swan event year!
Deaths in babies and children aged below 10 have not risen back to 2019 levels, however they are rising. The monthly death patterns show a considerable inflection in young pediatric deaths from mid-2022. This happens to coincide with the DOH’s Chikiting Bakuna catchup campaigns, rather than any return to schooling (4th quarter of 2022) and deserves separate investigation to determine cause and maintain public trust.
2023 Registered All-Cause Mortality
2023 all-cause mortality still shows no return to prior baseline, nor any pull-forward effect, even though the data is still preliminary. Deaths appear to be increasing, with the March to June 2023 registered deaths already exceeding 2022 registered deaths levels and set to increase further as registrations are added.
Increasing excess deaths across all age-groups in 2023 is a worldwide phenomenon in heavily vaccinated countries.
V COVID-19 Vaccine Safety
A safe vaccine will rarely, if ever, cause death in recipients and causes no detrimental change in overall population mortality. An effective vaccine reduces the incidence of the targeted infectious disease, and concomitant deaths from that illness.
The Covid-19 vaccines have been declared and promoted by the Philippine DOH, and many international health agencies, as safe and effective. However, these vaccines are Emergency Use Authorization (EUA) products. They adopt gene modification technologies (mRNA and viral vector products) which have never been used for vaccines before. They are delivered using a lipid nano-particle delivery platform (Moderna, Pfizer) which had also never previously been used for vaccine delivery. These products were developed in a fraction of the time that vaccines (and other medications) are usually developed (9 months as opposed to 7 – 10+ years) (Figure 9), before they were rolled out to the world’s population.
An Authorized product is not the same as an Approved product!
The EUA products were allowed to be used, assuming that (1) they might reduce risk of death and severity of illness or treat that illness. That (2) they would carry more benefit than risk, and that (3) there were no suitable alternative medications. The veracity of each of these assumptions is questionable.
The “speed of science”, “warp-speed” development and short clinical trial duration of the genetic vaccines could only, at best, begin to capture short-term immunity outcomes and health sequelae. Even worse, the laboratory manufactured precision-designed product used for the EUA licensure clinical trials is not the same as the mass-produced product (using scaled up e-coli bulk production process3) that was then rolled out to the population, effectively untested4.
Medium-term and long-term outcomes could not be assessed given the release timetable. It was expected that these would be examined during post-authorization monitoring. Assessment of carcinogenicity, mutagenicity, and fertility impacts were not required. Long-term and epigenetic effects, which only become apparent over decades and generations, could not begin to be understood.
Worldwide each year, 1000s of supplements, drugs and medical devices, previously approved using conventional timeframes, are recalled when they are found to be unsafe or ineffective. Notable drug recalls include VIOXX, Accutane, Thalidomide, Meridia, among others. If well-tested and long-used products can be recalled due to accumulated evidence of harm, what more these newly authorized, but inadequately tested genetic vaccines?
Philhealth Recognizes AEFI From Covid-19 Vaccines
Philhealth recognizes multiple compensable adverse events following Covid-19 vaccination. These affect all organ systems (Figure 10). These also fall within the categories of death which are increasing in the PSA’s reported Causes of Death.
DOH postulated, indeed equated, missed screenings with mass population-wide excess deaths. This does not follow (non-sequitur)! DOH can be absolutely sure that a missing factor caused a devastating outcome and yet cannot connect the temporally matching intensive public health intervention using an experimental product, with that same outcome? Why? Is this because it does not match the safe and effective public narrative. This is willful blindness!
Acknowledging only 9 product-linked deaths to date (discussed in December Congressional hearing), DOH do not consider the evidence of even their own Pharmacovigilance system, set up as an early warning system, which contained 344 reports of adverse reaction in the first week of administration5, 22,030 reports of harm by the 4th of April6, and 45 deaths by 25 April 20217. Up to 31 December 2023 there have been reports 10,805 serious adverse events (which can lead to death) including 2,864 deaths (Figure 11)!
Pharmacovigilance systems are known to underreport adverse events by 40 to more than 100x. Under-reporting in Philippines is likely even higher where many do not know about the reporting system, and even those who do may not have resources to report.
In the WHO’s own Vigiaccess pharmacovigilance system adverse events and deaths reported following Covid-19 vaccination eclipse all historical prior reports (Figure 12).
Historically, suspicions of harm and even single digit deaths have been enough for the Philippine FDA to recall a product. Although Covid-19 vaccines are no longer available in Philippines, we must ask, how much harm? How many suspected deaths and injuries does it take to get a product recalled?
Internationally, there are already 1000s of peer reviewed research papers8 describing cardiovascular, cerebrovascular, neurological, immunological, cancer, and reproductive impacts, among other sequelae. Researchers understand many of the mechanisms of harm, which are described biologically and biochemically, and observed via autopsy and histopathology.
The WHO’s 2019 causality assessment criteria9, which has an absolute requirement only for a Temporal relationship between vaccination and the adverse event, and 5 additional non-essential supporting criteria including Strength of association, Dose-response relationship, Consistency of evidence, and Specificity, are abundantly met. Adverse reactions and deaths have been caused by, and continue to occur, due to these vaccinations.
Additionally, there are millions of anecdotal reports of harm immediately following or soon after injection. Everyone already knows someone who has taken ill or died suddenly and unexpectedly. Cardiac, cancer, and sudden deaths are observed in all ages, even in new-born babies and young children!
Why has all of this evidence of harm been so studiously ignored?
CONCLUSION
It is not just highly feasible, it is probable, indeed there is no other rational explanation to be drawn from the available evidence, except that the Covid-19 vaccines are responsible for a large part of the 2021 excess deaths and the continuing and increasing deaths in 2022 and 2023.
References:
1. DOH Covid-19 Vaccination Dashboard, https://doh.gov.ph/covid19-vaccination-dashboard, last accessed on 7 November 2023. [PAGE ALREADY DELETED].
2. Rancourt, D.G., and Hickey, J., Quantitative evaluation of whether the Nobel-Prize-winning COVID-19 vaccine actually saved millions of lives. CORRELATION Research in the Public Interest, Brief Report, 08 October 2023. https://correlation-canada.org/nobel-vaccine-and-all-cause-mortality
3. Warne, N., Ruesch, M., Siwik, P. et al. Delivering 3 billion doses of Comirnaty in 2021. Nat Biotechnol 41, 183–188 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41587-022-01643-1
4. Elijah, Sonia. “Thou Shalt Not Adulterate: Part 1”, 16 November 2023, Substack.
5. https://www.fda.gov.ph/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/COVID-19-vaccine-reports-08-March-2021.pdf
6. https://www.fda.gov.ph/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/COVID-19-vaccine-AEFI-Weekly-Report-as-of-04-April-2021-ver-2.pdf
7. https://www.fda.gov.ph/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/Reports-of-Suspected-Adverse-Reaction-to-COVID-19-Vaccines-as-of-25-April-2021-v2.1.pdf
9. Causality assessment of an adverse event following immunization (AEFI): user manual for the revised WHO classification second edition, 2019 update. Geneva: World Health Organization; 2019. License: CC BY-NC-SA 3.0 IGO, https://www.who.int/vaccine_safety/publications/CausalityAssessmentAEFI_EN.pdf
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