Do More C-19 Vaccines Injected Result in Less Cases?

The opposite would seem indicated based on the data discussed today; although the UAE is a standout exception in this data set.

From Our World in Data I observe the countries with the highest vaccinated populations generally seem to be having higher rates of covid infections. These infections happen in waves, with each being attributed to different variants, and as the virus infects those accessible and vulnerable in each specific population.

Are these waves in any way correlated with vaccine uptake or boosters of the vaccines that were designed for the original legacy alpha variant. Is there any threshold of population vaccinated above which cases soar or drop?

Here are 7 countries showing relative vaccine uptake for “initial protocol”. The Philippines did not come up in this data set, however at March 21, 2022 it was sitting at nearly 59%, similar to India.

Below are these same countries 7-day rolling average of cases. Africa and India stand out with far lower case loads, and US has also come right down (as has the Philippines, though not shown here). Paradoxically UAE also seems to have low cases despite having 96% compliance with complete initial vaccination protocol.

India and Philippines have similar % of vaccinated population, though the vaccines used may not be the same. Their confirmed infection curves are fairly similar though with different timing of peak infections prior to the most recent omicron surge.

Could the boosters be making a difference, and are they helping or hindering? The chart below shows population boosted per 100 persons. South Korea is the most highly boosted and is currently doing worst in terms of cases. For UK and Israel, the second and third most boosted, it looks like cases are heading up again. Again, UAE stands out with very low cases even with 50% boosters given and likely needs a closer look in terms of protocols etc. that may possibly explain this. India, Africa, Philippines, and even the US with the lowest booster rates seem to be doing best in terms of new cases.

At this point, with this data, it appears that the higher vaccinated and particularly the higher boosted countries are generally doing far worse in terms of infections than the less vaccinated and boosted countries.

I haven’t looked at treatment protocols and country infection management strategies. These could be expected to have considerable impact on cases and may muddy any evaluation purely based on vaccination.

Does the correlation between higher rates of vaccination and higher rates of infection indicate vaccine failure? Many far more educated writers and researchers than I are saying just this! Indeed, they are pointing to abject failure for these products, and also abysmal safety profiles.

This links to the elephant in the room, the worldwide excess mortality that no official party has yet dared to link with these products! Below are the available plotted excess mortality from the countries I looked at today (note that the latest plotted data points may be incomplete).

Correlation doesn’t equal causation. However, as the mass of data accumulates, we might want indeed draw preliminary conclusions and modify our approach, even as we collect more data to confirm what we think we are seeing.