Euromomo Week 7, 2022

The last "normal range" excess deaths in Europe was 9 months ago! Something is wrong!! Population scientists?!? This is a worldwide trend of immense concern!

While waiting for more local data I decided to take a look at Euromomo, which maps and reports all cause mortality and excess deaths across the participating European countries. Currently at 2022 Week 7 they report “lasting substantial elevated excess mortality mainly among the 65+ but also in the 45-64 years group”. From the pooled data, the last time the deaths were within normal range was week 21-21 which started Monday 24th May 2021; there are now 9 months of consistent excess deaths in Europe, well above baseline!

Current and historical excess deaths can be explored in total or by age categories, by week, and cumulatively. I have added in the 2019 data so that the pre-covid epidemic pattern could be seen. All ages for both weekly and cumulative deaths are provided in two figures below. We can see weekly spikes of excess deaths in 2020 and 2021. 2022 is also not looking promising with excess deaths well above baseline (latest few weeks graphed may be subject for adjustment due to delayed registrations / reporting), with the current concerning trending of about 10,000 weekly excess deaths looking set to continue.

From the cumulative data, by year end, 2020 showed about 300,000 and 2021 showed about 260,000 excess deaths, respectively vs. 2019. Note that excess deaths in 2020 rise sharply in week 11, concurrent with the new and rapidly expanding covid-19 outbreak.

Looking at excess deaths by age-group is an interesting if morbid exercise. The 2019 data (yellow) shows, I presume, a normal patterns of excess deaths, fairly stable and moving up (or down) slowly.

We know that covid-19 infection was particularly unforgiving to elderly and persons with multiple comorbidities, not helped by the novelty of the disease and its treatment requirements. We see that older people had a big jump in excess deaths starting Week 11 (9th March) of 2020. Excess deaths in those 75 and older were higher in 2020 than 2021, though both years were well above baseline, reflecting decimation of that age cohort.

For persons between 15 and 74 years of age excess deaths were high in 2020 and worse in 2021, also well above baseline and 2019, and representing an atypically high population loss.

In the youngest cohort of 0-14 years, compared to baseline we see lower than baseline excess deaths in 2020 and in 2021 up until Week 32 (9th August). Why would children have done better even than pre-covid pandemic in the second half of 2020 and the first months of 2021? Could it be less accidents, more parental attention, changed health care access, lower non-covid infectious disease? More research from population scientists could answer this. The pediatric rise from negative excess deaths in 2021 started in week 21 (24th May), exactly the same time that the population overall deaths started rising above normal range (see first figure in this post). What happened in late May of 2021? Whatever it was, it was affecting the entire population and continues to do so.

In the 15 - 74 yo age groups, 2021 was a year of unprecedented excess deaths (ref. to the euromomo historical data sets). Surprising indeed, considering that:-

1. These age groups (particularly younger and working ages) were not originally susceptible to the severe covid infection outcomes that older cohorts were,

2. Medical establishments by 2021 would have (should have!!) been expected to have already determined and be implementing the most effective treatments for covid infections,

3. The entire population was in the process receiving the safe and effective new vaccines that had been promised (and trusted) would end the pandemic. [Rollout in Europe started with healthcare workers and vulnerable persons in November / December of 2020. Expansion to the entire adult population proceeded, with strong Government encouragement into 2021, and with older pediatric populations becoming eligible late in 2021].

Alarmingly, in 2022, excess deaths in the 15-44 cohort, though relatively small, already exceed all previous years. These are young, typically very heathy people without considerable comorbidities. They are rarely expected to die. If they do, unexpectedly, questions must be asked, and foul play ruled out.

All of the above begs the question; could the lockdowns, vaccines, and ‘new’ public health measures not be providing the promised and expected benefits? Where are the cost-benefit analyses? We have had 2 years to provide them! We hear naught but crickets from official sources.

There is surely already enough data to draw conclusions of harm vs. benefit. It should be apparent the balance swings far to the harm side! When will action be taken? I suggest that there may be far worse harm in continuing this course than there might be in stopping and changing direction. History will not look kindly on leaders who insisted on ‘saving face” and “staying the course” instead of saving their populations.

If you, my reader, have gotten this far and are not a leader… you may at least settle for understanding the situation, standing up and standing strong and saving yourself, and as many of your loved ones and others in your communities as you can!

If you have taken the C-19 vaccines, I trust that you made the best decision you could. That must be respected and supported! Please though, consider no boosters (protection, if any, is short lived at best, and comes with grave risks for at least some) or further discretionary pharmaceuticals. Manage any health issues as well as you can, and then take care of your overall health with lifestyle and nutrition being foundational. I will address that in another post.