Finally Some Relief! Australian Provisional 2025 Jan-March Mortality Data shows Lowered Death Counts Across All Age-Groups.

Post-Covid-19 vaccine rollout deaths among older folk remain a step-level higher than pre-vaccine rollout deaths. Aggressive promotion of Covid-19 and Flu Vaccines continues.

ABS released its monthly mortality data covering January to March 2025 on 27th June 2025. ABS only discusses current year deaths with respect to the 2 prior years (2023 and 2024), as if no prior historical trending existed. This report provides a historical perspective. Deaths in Australia jumped within 2 months of rollout of covid-19 vaccines. Overall deaths have never returned to prior levels. 2025 is no exception though it is currently running at the bottom of the new higher range.

This released added 14,679 deaths: 83 new deaths for January, 152 new deaths for February, and 14,310 deaths for March 2025.

1st quarter of the year mortality is typically lowest in Australia, the end of summer; 2025 brings some much-needed relief against the ongoing excess mortality that took off from April-May 2021 (Covid-19 vaccination started on 22nd February 2021).

Jan-March 2025 deaths are 7.8% higher than 2021 same period deaths, but lower than all subsequent years; running at the bottom of the post-vaccine higher death range. Deaths by week: -

Deaths by month show that overall 2025 deaths are running just under 2023 levels: -

Excess mortality against calculated baseline (forecast using 2015-2019 death trending) has dropped. There is still a gross cumulative excess above forecast of 65,586 deaths.

Death trending over time makes the step change since the 2021 post C19 jab rollout abundantly clear.

Deaths across all age groups and by gender are set out and discussed with reference to January to March. There is a clear drop in deaths amongst folks aged 74 and younger in 1st quarter 2025.

• Australian men and women aged 0-44 had their lowest death count since prior to 2015 (I don’t have earlier records), perhaps, finally, a pull-forward effect on excess deaths.

• Females aged 45-64 had their lowest death count since 2016, and males of the same age-group since 2017. I.e. deaths are lower than pre-pandemic levels.

• Males aged 65-74 had their lowest death count since 2019 (pre-pandemic death range), but females in this cohort were only better than 2022 death counts (deaths in the new post-Covid-19 injection range).

• Older women 75-84 fared better than 2023, but worse than 2024. Males fared worse than 2021, but better than all other post-vaccine years. I.e. deaths are within the post-Covid-19-vaccine new high range.

Deaths among 85+ men in 1st quarter was 0.7% higher than 2023 but 2.1% lower than 2024. Deaths among 85+ women in 1st quarter was 3.9% lower than 2024 and 0.3% lower than 2023; I.e. lowest 1st quarter deaths in 2 years.

Cold is of far greater risk to vulnerable persons than heat. Australian homes are generally not well set up for cold weather. Less sun exposure reduces vitamin D levels and raises susceptibility to illness in the population. Winter 2025 has been cold early (coldest May on record) and winter deaths will be expected to peak by July and into August (July data should start release by end of September).

The Australian Governments’ promotion of Covid-19 and Flu vaccines is relentless; though low general uptake is being reported in media. Latest Covid-19 vaccine update shows nearly half a million doses administered in the past month. Note that flu shots are usually pushed at the same time as Covid-19 shots; so recipients likely took both.

Highest uptake has been among seniors aged 65+. Covid-19 vaccination is no longer offered to healthy Australians aged below 18.

Covid-19 cases and outbreaks continue in residential age care homes with cases rising in June.

With matching but low rises ICU cases.

Vaccine hesitancy remains a problem in Australia! Particularly for flu, covid-19, and pediatric vaccines. Many Australians lost trust in government over the pandemic years. That lack of trust continues. This may have contributed to falling death counts. Time will tell.