
History has been rewritten, Australian pre-vaccine death rates and post-vaccine death rates are not to be compared / data is not provided. The Post-covid Era starts in 2022. I used forecast data to
assess the still ongoing excess mortality. Jan-Mar Australian mortality data has just been released. Older Australians, particularly women, have their highest ever death counts in 2024.
The Australian Government is still promoting covid-19 vaccination as safe, effective, and recommended for people aged 18 and older.
Below are the latest Covid-19 vaccine cases, deaths, vaccine dosing and people dosed, but no longer taking doses, from Australia. It looks like only about 2 million Australians, out of some 27 million, are still taking Covid-19 jabs. That says a lot for public confidence!
ABS has released Jan-March 2024 provisional mortality data on 28th of June 2024. Note that the 1st quarter data is still expected to increase in the next release, and thus March 2024 comparisons with prior years may be prematurely reassuring.
Further, mortality data is only compared with 2022 and 2023, as if all death data prior to 2022 no longer exists. 2024 registered deaths are 1.5% higher than 2023, but 4% lower than 2022. Apparently, nothing to see and all is normal.
Age standardized deaths in most age-groups are lower in 2024 than the prior 2 years.
Covid-19 deaths are down.
Only dementia deaths rose compared to the prior two years, other COD are lower, or equivalent. There are no comparisons to incidence prior to 2022.
Independent Assessment of ABS Mortality Data
I downloaded and assessed the latest data against prior historical data. The first thing to note is that death rates prior to 2022 cannot be compared with current data due to changes in methodology and source data!
Monthly Deaths, 2018 to March 2024 are plotted. Key vaccine rollout dates are marked. There is a clear inflection in deaths starting from March 2021, the rollout of the covid-19 injectables having started on 22 February. Note how the normal annual pattern of deaths, higher in winter (August typically had highest deaths) and lower in summer (February typically had lowest deaths), has changed since 2021 with a new unnatural external death trigger stronger than extended cold weather / seasonality, coming into play.
Plotted by week, from 2019 to 2024. It is curious that weekly mortality rose steadily following the rollout of second boosters to elderly and vulnerable persons and had its highest spike within weeks of the general population being offered a second booster.
Deaths by gender show generally higher deaths for men than women, which is typical, plotted by month from Jan 2015 to March 2024.
Following figures show breakdowns by gender and age. There is a clear upwards inflection point that starts in March 2021, the first month following rollout.
Young men aged 0-44, and elderly men aged 85+ had their highest ever death count in February 2024. 2024 deaths will still rise as data is compiled and in following releases (January deaths rose by 47, and February deaths rose by 145 compared to the prior May release of January to February 2024 data). The Feb 2021 start of dosing is marked and is followed by a clear death upwards inflection in all age groups but the youngest men.
Australian women’s mortality data.
In 2024, Australian women aged 65-74 had their highest ever Feb deaths, aged 75-84 had their highest ever Jan and Feb deaths, and 85+ had their highest ever March deaths. Do these figures reflect an aging population, or is worse at play?
It is not valid to compare 2015-2019 average deaths against 2024 deaths. Instead, I used the 2015-2019 data to create a 5-year forecast on expected mortality for 2021 and onwards. This forecast incorporates the upward trending from prior years. Using the forecast against provisional 2024 registered deaths; January deaths are running at +8.3%, February at +3.0% and March at +1.8%. Cumulative excess deaths rise by 230 since the prior provisional report to 48,634.
There should have been deficit deaths, fewer deaths than usual considering that all of the vulnerable people had already died prematurely from 2020 to 2023, leaving few vulnerable people left to die. Yet, these nearly 50,000 deaths have not been compensated, and people continue to die in considerably higher numbers than they did prior to the population intervention. People are becoming vulnerable to death far more quickly than in the past; population health is failing. Nutrition? Lifestyle? Economic and life Stresses? THE intervention, and other injectables? Likely a combination of all.
Many people in Australia are sick. Including young people becoming chronically unwell; some of these within my family and social network and including children! All accepted the intervention; some are multiply boosted.
There seems to be efforts to induce collective amnesia on what population health used to look like; led by ABS and government agencies which are changing comparator baselines and presenting abnormal data as normal. Nothing to see!
Every record has been destroyed or falsified, every book has been rewritten, every picture has been repainted, every statue and street building has been renamed, every date has been altered. And that process is continuing day by day and minute by minute. History has stopped. Nothing exists except the endless present in which the party is always right.
George Orwell
Hi Sally, I’m always amazed at the volume of work you do in an incredibly short time! I hope to have time soon to look carefully at all these interesting calculations and graphs. Since July 2023 the ABS has been publishing 6 monthly 'official' excess death reports in which pandemic data is compared with the prepandemic years 2013-2019. https://www.abs.gov.au/articles/measuring-australias-excess-mortality-during-covid-19-pandemic-until-december-2023
The most recent came out with the PMS that you discuss here (on Friday 28th June). A complex and non-transparent model is used to calculate expected deaths and its drawbacks are discussed in the extensive Australian Medical Professionals' submission to the Senate Inquiry on excess mortality. The Inquiry have yet to publish the AMPS submission on their website. Let's hope they do! https://www.aph.gov.au/Parliamentary_Business/Committees/Senate/Community_Affairs/ExcessMortality47/Submissions
far from being dead in the water as so many wrongly assume the pandemic treaty will be back much sooner than you think yep you can quote me