Hong Kong 2022 Vital Statistics Update. Births are Dropping & Deaths are Rising with Deaths nearly Double Births. After small rises from 2019 to 2021, 2022 Deaths Rose Sharply by 24%.

Without immigration, Hong Kong is facing population collapse as birth rates plummet and deaths soar. Curiously Hong Kong's spike in excess deaths only came in 2022. Correlated with mass boosting?

Hong Kong Data vital statistics data is currently available up to 2022, with the latest report having been released on 12 January 2024. Some notable findings:-

• Total fertility rate per 1000 female population is falling (701/1000 in 2022), with the crude birth rate having dropped 37% between 2019 and 2022 (from 7/1000 to 4.4/1000 population),

• Median age of women at first childbirth is rising, from 31.9 in 2019 to 32.7 in 2022).

• Crude and standardized death rates have been rising slowly over time with Hong Kong’s aging population. However, there was a big jump only in 2022. This is blamed on Covid-19. 2022 year-on-year deaths increased by 24% compared to 2021, far above the increases for 2019 (+3.3%), 2020 (+3.5%) and 2021 (+1.4%).

The note on the last line “expectation of life at birth” is that the 2022 figures should be interpreted with care as “figures are affected by exceptionally high mortality rates in 2022 during the COVID-19 epidemic”. Why did Hong Kong only have exceptionally high deaths in 2022, not 2021 like many other countries? Could it be related specifically to Covid-19 Booster dosing?

Plotted figures below show the population vital statistics changes over time.

Crude birth rates have dropped from 35/1000 in 1961 to 4.4/1000 in 2022. The median age of the population in Hong Kong in 2021 was 46.3 up from 43.4 in 2016, demonstrating the aging population and meaning the majority of the population are past reproductive age. Birthrates will continue dropping. The median maternal age at first childbirth has risen to 32.7, indicating that women are putting off childbearing until later in life, leaving less time to have a larger family, even if desired and it can be afforded.

Crude death rate in 2022 spiked to 8.7 from 6.9 in 2021. This is a massive jump in death rates, specifically in 2022. The 2022 crude death rate (8.7) is nearly double the crude birth rate (4.4). Even without the 2022 death spike, this birth-death trending is very problematic for Hong Kong. Clearly population cannot be maintained without immigration.

Hong Kong used to be a vibrant city, a gateway between China and the world. It may have lost much of its’ edge; becoming a very expensive to live, very high-pressure working environment, and not very family friendly. More recently it can be challenging to get around (off the beaten tourist track) without at least rudimentary Chinese language skills. I lived and worked in Hong Kong for a few years from 1995 to 1997, travelled there frequently prior to Covid-19, and still travel there (work and leisure), so I can speak from some personal experience.

The following figure shows Hong Kong’s aging population. Only about 40% are 34 or younger. Colleagues and friends also report that younger people are eager to leave Hong Kong, and many do so as soon as they can: my colleagues’ children are studying university level outside of Hong Kong. Many of them may never return.

Maternal mortality was very low in 2020, rose sharply in 2021 (lack of access to care due to harsh lockdowns, or was it due to maternal covid-19 vaccination?), dropped but was still higher than the prior 8 years in 2022.

In 2022 male life expectancy dropped to 80.7, and female life expectancy to 86.8 reflecting very high deaths in 2022.

Hong Kong population has decreased since 2020 and stood at 7,346,100 at mid-year 2022. Declining and aging population = smaller tax base and smaller workforce. Hong Kong already has critical skilled and unskilled labor shortages. Even more challenges ahead.

Covid-19 Case and Vaccination Data

This data is mostly from the HKSAR Government, as the OWID data for Hong Kong is limited. Here is the latest covid-19 product uptake. 93% of the population took primary series! The most frequently used products were Comirnaty (mRNA) and CoronaVac (Chinese non-mRNA).

Here is the age break-down of dosing uptake. 31.3% of infants aged 6 months to 3 years old have also been dosed, some with up to 3 doses. 4th doses were given to children aged 12 and older. 6th doses have been offered to people aged 60 and older.

2022 Covid-19 Cases Data, with distribution of cases by vaccination status:

• 15.7% - unvaccinated or < 14 days post 1st dose,

• 6.6% - 1 dose or < 14 days post 2nd dose,

• 33.2% - 2 doses or < 14 days post 3rd dose,

• 41% - 3 doses or < 14 days post 4th dose.

• 3.1% - 4 doses or < 14 days post 5th dose.

2022 Covid-19 Deaths by vaccination status and age.

Note that by far the most deaths occurred in the 80+ unvaccinated age group (80+ elders also have lower overall uptake than the rest of the population aside from babies (0-<3)).

Case fatality rates using these the cases and deaths tables:

• unvaccinated: 1.49%,

• 1 dose - 0.65%,

• 2 dose - 0.114%,

• 3 dose - 0.019%,

• 4 doses - 0.061%.

CFR appears to have dropped with higher doses, though rose with the 4th dose. Is this proof that jabs stopped fatal outcomes from Covid-19? Hardly! The vast majority of the unjabbed who died were elderly and older than 80. Further, recipients were only considered vaccinated 14-days after dosing; conceivably elderly persons who took a first dose and then developed Covid-19 within less than two weeks (a common post-jab outcome) or had adverse reaction and died and incidentally tested positive, would have been considered and counted as unvaccinated.

Recall also that Covid-19 was typically progressively mild in 2022. Why did Hong Kong have such exceptional death rates? It should not have been covid-19! Covid-19 was evolving to become less pathogenic even as subsequent doses were rolled out. Was the decline in pathogenicity over time due to natural evolution of the virus, or due to the vaccines? I believe the latter.

Do the excess deaths in any way match the Covid-19 jab dosing? Below, OWID shows the weekly average doses. Booster doses started in November 2021; the March 2022 peak dosing likely reflects mostly booster doses. The last spike in dosing matches January 2023, and would reflect uptake of additional boosters.

Curious that the March 2022 and January 2023 spike in (booster?) doses match the massive spike in excess deaths in March 2022, and the next largest spike in January 2023.

Waves of covid-19 illness continue in Hong Kong, with some people (including friends there) getting quite sick.

The push to take booster doses continues. Vulnerable populations are currently encouraged to take booster and influenza jabs together. 2023 and 2024 vital statistics will be very interesting.

They are still pushing doses for immunocompromised babies and children. Studies reveal risks outweigh any possible benefits. Hong Kong health authorities may not be looking at this data!

Hong Kong is currently kicking off to an active 2024 flu and covid-19 season with both covid-19 and flu cases rising and exceeding baseline levels. The health minister is confident that the current high covid-19 vaccines uptake will protect their population. Never mind the immune suppression that multiple doses of the jabs bring!

If you want more Hong Kong death data, Eldric Vero discusses Hong Kong vaccine uptake, covid-19 attributed mortality, and all-cause mortality.

Chart of the Day (CotD) Hong Kong Covid and Excess Deaths