Hong Kong 2025 1st Quarter Vital Statistics Released. Nearly 95K Natural Population Loss Since 2020. Hong Kong Offering 10th Dose of Covid-19 Vaccine, but to Date There are No Takers.

2025 C19 Jabs uptake to 11 May 2025 was 30,928 doses; while this included 323 children aged 0-11, and 33 children aged 12-19, most doses went to older adults.

Hong Kong provisional vital statistics to March 2025 have been released. 2024 was Year of the Dragon, and while 2024 births rose by 10.5% vs. prior year, births were still 31% lower than 2019 levels. First quarter 2025 births are similar to 2024 births.

First quarter 2025 deaths are nearly 5% higher than 2024 levels, mostly contributed by a February 2025 death spike, but possibly indicating a new trending for rising deaths.

Overall-trending marked for start and key dates of Covid-19 vaccines administration. Population-wide (6months and older) seasonal flu and covid-19 jabs were pushed in December 2024.

Vaccine uptake and monthly deaths are plotted. Separate figures are provided to more clearly show 2023 through to 2025 trending when relative doses are low, but population is up to 9th doses for some. Pfizer BioNTech is still offered from 6 months of age with 323 doses administered to children aged 0 - 11 in 2025.

6th and 7th doses started in April and May of 2023.

8th Doses started in May and 9th doses in September 2024. As of 30 April 2025, 3,835 8th doses and 485 9th doses have been administered. As of 11 May 2025, no 10th doses have been given. All those who took 9th doses clearly believe in the product. Could the fact of no 10th doses, mean no one has survived to take a 10th dose; it is more than 8 months since 9th dose was offered. How many doses can a body survive?

Note the February 2025 death spike, which matches the coldest time of the year, but also comes after a flu and covid-19 jab drive from 20 December 2024.

An interesting observation from the population data is a growing disparity between male and female births, most particularly since the end of 2024. Typical male:female birth ratios are in the range of 105:100. Hong Kong male:female ratios are typically in the 110:100 range. January to March 2025 figures are 122:100, 135:100 and 130:100. I have not seen similar figures in Malaysia or Singapore’s Chinese Population. Curious!

% of registered male and female births over time. This must represent changes 9 months earlier. Hong Kong has strict regulations on prenatal sex determination which reduces the likelihood of widespread sex-selective practices. Early 2025 may still reflect the end of the Dragon year birth trending.

Annual population trending shows annual population losses since 2020.

Overall Hong Kong population trending shows a natural population loss of just under 95,000 by March 2025.

If these trending continue, and not even considering considerable (young) population losses due to outwards migration, Hong Kong will be very dependent on inwards migration to maintain its population. That means making itself attractive to retain its young people and for incoming migrants: it must complete with many other countries facing similar population challenges.