Hong Kong, Macau, Taiwan... all have births lower than deaths in latest May 2026 VS data. Does China really have 1.4 Billion Population?

It is update time for Hong Kong and Macau (1st Qtr) and Taiwan (4-months) who have released latest interim VS. Births continue to fall, and deaths remain slightly lower than 2025 same period levels.

Taiwan

Taiwan has a population of 23,262,544 as of end of April 2026, a loss of 8,024 persons (deaths exceeding births) since March 2026, and 36,588 since December 2025.

Births to April are running 15.2% lower than births in 2025.

Deaths in 2026 to April are 7.9% lower than the same period in 2025.

While deaths are stable at their new post-pandemic high, births just keep plummeting.

Migration offers no respite with negative contributions to population growth. Taiwan had lost 335,579 population as of the end of April 2026.

Hong Kong Special Administrative Region

Hong Kong had a population of 3,404,400 at the end of 2025. Hong Kong population dropped by 6,542 in the first quarter of 2025. Deaths declined by 1.8% vs. the same period in 2025.

Births declined by 15.7% compared to the same period in 2025. I don’t have migration numbers for Hong Kong to examine how migration is being used to maintain the population. Hong Kong is working closely with China to continue with development of the territory.

Deaths in Hong Kong rose sharply in 2022, fell through to 2025, and appear to be rising again in early 2026 data.

Hong Kong and Taiwan Populations

Available population demographic data % of each age group set out. Hong Kong has fewer young people even than Taiwan, and a larger older age population. Median age in Taiwan is 44.93 (April 2026). Median age in Hong Kong (2025) was 47.37. Females outnumber males in Hong Kong for age groups 25+, and in Taiwan from age 45 and older. Given rapidly contracting annual birth cohorts, both countries have very limited time left to stabilize population losses, before decline becomes terminal and irreversible.

Macau Special Administrative Region

Macau’s population was 688,900 at the end of 2025.

Deaths to March 2026 were 5.5% higher than the same period in 2025.

Births in Q1 2026 are 8.0% lower than the same period in 2025.

Deaths exceeded births by 1 person in March 2026. This is the second time that monthly deaths have exceeded births; the first being in June 2025 (-13).

Average monthly births and deaths are set out. 2026 data averages only 1st quarter data: overall births exceed deaths by only 6.

Macau total fertility rate (per 1000 women) dropped from 899 in 2019 to 467 in 2025. Fertility rate for local population dropped from 1,340 in 2019 to 641 in 2025. Macau has considerable population of migrant workers with the largest groups from mainland China, then the Philippines, and Vietnam.

11.7% of Macau’s population are aged under 15, 10.7% are aged 15-24, 15.2% are aged 25-34, 19.8% are aged 35-44, 14.2% are aged 45-54, 13.3% are aged 55-64, and 15.3% are aged 65 and above. This gives nearly 43% of the population effectively above reproductive age (45+).

If the patterns emerging in these 3 countries, is mirrored in China, China’s population may be declining even faster than official records. Official records state China’s population was 1.405 billion. 2025 was China’s 4th year of population decline with births dropping to 7.92 million and deaths increasing to 11.31 million, a loss of 3.39 million. Some observers question whether China’s population really is 1.4 billion. Interesting discussion from Lei follows. I personally believe her arguments hold a lot of water.

Regardless of numbers, Asia’s population is in rapid and increasing decline. I tried to find recent (2026) news articles for these countries but didn’t find any. These demographic trending have major consequences for society. We must not ignore.