In the Philippines Statistics Office 14th Release of 2023 Vital Statistics, Deaths Have Risen Above Births are Still Below 2022 Levels. Data Remains Incomplete for Some Regional Areas.

Vital statistics are compiled with reports received to PSA Central Office of 31 July 2024. COD data shows that Cancer Deaths rose by 5% and Cardiovascular by 2.6%. Concerning trending!

PSA has given their 14th drop of data for 2023 on 26th September 2024. These VS contain registered births, deaths and marriages received to the central PSA office as of 31 July 2024.

Since the last release 43,850 births have been added to the running tally to give 1,422,161 registered births in 2023. The dashed lines provide comparison birth and deaths rates in 2022.

19,495 deaths have been added to the running tally to give 682,531 deaths in 2023, exceeding 2022 registered deaths by 0.4%. Deaths from March to June were running about 10% higher than 2022 levels. October deaths have risen above 2022 levels. November and December data are still incomplete.

Overall, registered Marriages are running 10% lower than 2022 levels.

Registered deaths have exceeded 2022 levels and will rise further if late data is still added.

Using 2015-2019 mortality data as an arbitrary baseline, excess deaths are now running at just over half a million.

Births are running lower than 2022, but should improve if late registrations are added. Birth have dropped off in the second half of 2023, which is a worrying trending irrespective that there are delayed registrations.

Using the same arbitrary baseline of 2015-2019, there has been a loss of over a million births in the Philippines since 2019. A small % of this may be contributed by unregistered births.

The completeness of the data can be assessed by looking at the monthly data. It is clear that at least some regions have still not provided complete data for 2023. Deaths by region for 2022 and 2023 follow. Arrows indicate regions whose data I expect is incomplete.

Births by region for 2022 and 2023 follow.

Cause of death data is not reassuring. The top causes of death are Heart disease which are up by 2.6% compared to 2022, Neoplasms which are up by 5%, and Cerebrovascular Disease, which is at the same level as 2022. I predict that the neoplasms rate will be soar in 2024. I currently personally know multiple people recently diagnosed with rare and agressive cancers, and my friends report the same, both in Philippines and abroad.

Natural increase (births - deaths) is still positive, but the downward trending continues.

If PSA data release follow the same schedule as 2023, the 2024 data should begin release in the next few weeks.