Jamaica had no Excess Deaths in 2020 but 31.6% excess in 2021. Peak Excess Deaths Match Peak Covid-19 Vaccine Dosing. Neonatal Deaths Spiked with 1st Vaccine Rollouts and Stillbirths with Peak Dosing.

Peak deaths in September 2021 were 2.16x September 2020 levels. No VS Data has been published for 2022 and 2023, begging the question of whether adverse population outcomes are being hidden.

I was asked to look into birth and death data over the Covid-19 era for Jamaica. Jamaica is an island nation located in the Caribbean Sea and West Indies. With a land area of 10,990 sq.km, it has an estimated population in 2025 of around 2.8 million people.

I was able to access birth and death data from the Registrar General’s Department covering the period from 2003 through to 2021. All data referred is for births and deaths by month of registration as reported in the relevant year’s report, with no adjustment made for late registrations. I used the reports’ raw data to prepare graphs to visualize population outcomes from 2017 to 2021.

Covid-19 vaccine data was gleaned from OWID and from Jamaican news reports.

There are no published vital statistics data after 2021, even though prior year’s data was published with only a 1-year delay, i.e. 2021 data was published by 31 December 2022, and 2022 and 2023 data would have been expected to have been released by now.

Covid-19 Vaccines Administration and Dosing in Jamaica?

Jamaica sourced Covid-19 vaccines from private sector partnerships, from COVAX, and from the African Medical Supplies Platform. The private partnerships empowered the private sector to purchase and import its own supply of COVID vaccines for deployment through the private health care network, as is currently done with the annual flu vaccine. A private sector agreement was signed in February 2021. Thus, it is likely that some Covid-19 vaccines were privately available in Jamaica from February 2021.

The first COVAX-provided 14,400 doses of AstraZeneca arrived on 16 March 2021.

Note that there was a major push for Covid-19 vaccination through August and September 2021. The linked September 2021 article refers to over 800,000 doses having been received in August 2021, and to the government’s goal of administering 700,000 doses by the end of September 2021.

By 6 November 2021, just over 1 million doses of Covid-19 vaccines, AstraZeneca, J&J, and Pfizer had been administered.

Jamaican Covid-19 Vaccination and Vital Statistics Data

By the end of December 2021, 25.1% of the Jamaican population had received at least 1 dose of Covid-19 vaccine and 20% had completed a primary series.

Birth data from 2017 to 2021 is plotted showing year-on-year change. Births are slowly decreasing over time. Births in 2021 appear similar to prior years. The drop in births in late 2021 may be partially due to late registrations. There is a very notable spike in births in March 2021 which needs explanation.

Death data is plotted by year. 2020 is unexceptional with deaths 1.2% lower than 2019 levels. However, 2021 is highly abnormal. Deaths rise well above 2020 levels from March concurrent with the Covid-19 vaccines rollouts, peaking in September at 2.16x September 2020 levels.

7-day rolling average of vaccine administration shows peaks in dosing.

Population birth and death outcomes can be plotted shows start and ramp up of vaccine rollouts. This shows progression of births and deaths over time. While 2021 births are mostly congruent with prior year data, deaths are highly abnormal and well above all prior levels.

Births and deaths are plotted against OWID reported number of vaccine doses administered. Note how the rise in deaths matches the vaccine rollouts. The mass August vaccine push was followed by the highest death spike in September.

I also draw attention with an arrow to an unusual spike in births exactly matching the rollout of AstraZeneca in March 2021. Could something have triggered pre-term births in expecting mothers? Births in April and May 2021 dropped below prior levels.

Infant still births and deaths are plotted. There was a clear spike in neonatal deaths in March 2021. Could these have been related to pre-term births? Were mothers exposed to vaccinated health care workers going into labor early? Still births peaked in September 2021 matching the period with highest number of daily vaccines administered.

The Jamaican Ministry of Health and Wellness reassured the public that the vaccine is proven safe and effective…. gone through the same rigorous process as every other vaccine and no vaccine suspected of impacting a person’s ability to conceive, has ever been or will ever be approved. Jamaican population outcomes clearly belie these claims, as does accumulating international data!

Excess Deaths Vs. Vaccine Doses

Excess deaths are deaths which are not expected, deaths which are higher than some prior reference point. I referred 2021 deaths to 2020 deaths, plotting excess deaths against doses of Covid-19 Vaccine per 100 persons.

Deaths appear highly correlated with vaccine doses / 100 persons. There is an initial notable rise in excess deaths in February 2021; is this related to private sector vaccine supply? End of year data may be incomplete for late registrations, or it may be that fewer vulnerable persons (i.e. younger, healthier persons) were being injected by the end of the year.

% of excess deaths vs. 2020 levels against C-19 Vax doses / 100 persons are also shown for easy reference.

% excess deaths against 1st and completed dosing %. Again, the end of year death data may be incomplete or the population accepting injections by the end of the year might be different / less vulnerable than the population injected earlier; early rollouts focused on health care workers, elderly and vulnerable persons. Is there a different mix of vaccines being used by end of year with less deaths?

Considering no vital statistics data has been released since the 2021 data release, what is happening with the population by now? Is it in decline? How is population health?

Summary and Conclusion

There were no excess deaths in Jamaica in 2020, the first year of the pandemic.

Covid-19 vaccines were provided by the Private Sector and via COVAX donations and the African Medical Supplies platform. Dosing started officially in March 2021, with ramping up of dosing through August and September 2021. The Covid-19 vaccines used were AstraZeneca, J&J, and Pfizer.

Excess deaths started in 2021 rising synchronously with the Covid-19 vaccine rollouts. Despite only 25% of the population having received a first dose and 20% a second dose by the end of December 2021, Jamaica experienced a catastrophic 31.6% excess deaths in that year.

Why is there no data later than 2021? Outcomes cannot be assessed if data is withheld.

The Jamaican population should be demanding data and explanations from their government.