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SuperSally888's avatar

Hi. I can only speculate on why they did not apparently have considerable excess deaths in 2021 and 2022, until the December booster.

One other thought is that due to lockdowns a large portion of Macau's OFW (overseas foreign workers) population who work to support the casino industry may have returned to their countries of origin. Having fewer persons in the nation would have naturally translated into a lower death rate. This may have in turn camouflaged any excess deaths in the remaining population.

The same mechanism may have applied, at least in part, to the lower births that were observed in both 2020 and 2021.

Other possibilities:-

- Interaction between prior inactivated doses and new mRNA doses

- More toxic batches of mRNA by December 2023 [the overall population of Macau is quite small, so likely did not receive many different batches - this would be good for someone with access to Macau batch data to look into].

- cumulative damage even from the inactivated reaching a peak with what could have been a 4th or 5th dose for many receipients.

- December / January are winter in Macau. This is also a time of higher vulnerability, which may have worsened vaccine reactions, if they occurred.

So many possible points to speculate upon.

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SuperSally888's avatar

Macau's migrant worker population was lower than normal during Covid-19 pandemic years, and has not yet recovered. Many Macau residents were also leaving for better futures overseas. https://macaonews.org/business/macau-macao-non-resident-workers-population-may-2023/

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