Macau, Hong Kong, Taiwan April Release of Vital Statics Show Mixed Patterns on Deaths, but Universally Falling Births. When will a Population Crisis be Called?
Vs. 2025 Hong Kong Births to Feb fall by 20.6%, deaths drop by 11.4%, Macau Births Fall by 11.5%, Deaths rise by 5.2%, Taiwan Births to March 2026 fall by 17.3%, deaths drop by 0.5%.
Continued trending on vital statistics in Taiwan, Macau, and Hong Kong released in the last 10 days are presented.
TAIWAN - Vital Statistics for Q1 2026
Taiwan 2026 data is available for January to March 2026. Taiwan trending on births and deaths since 2019 is set out. Deaths have consistently exceeded births since January 2021 with the gap widening over time.
Compared to 2025 levels, deaths increased by 16.1% in January 2026, but decreased in February (-32%), and March (-0.1%).
Births continue to fall off a cliff; down 8.1% in January, 38.3% in February and 6.3% in March 2026. Births in 2026 Q1 are 17.3% lower than births in 2025 Q1.
Average monthly births and deaths, by year are set out. Since 2019, births have fallen by nearly 46% and deaths have risen by 15.8%. The sharp incline in deaths started from 2021. The steepest declines in births are in 2025 and 2026.
MACAU - Vital Statistics for Jan & Feb 2026
Macau trending on births and deaths up to February 2026. The difference between births and deaths has narrowed to single digits. Births exceeded deaths by only 13 in January and 5 in February 2026.
Average monthly deaths by year data reveals that births have fallen by 53.4% and deaths have risen by 17.3% between 2019 and 2026. 2026 data is provisional being averaged based on only 2 months’ data.
HONG KONG - Vital Statistics for January and February 2026
Compared to the same period in 2025, there is fall in deaths in 2026 (despite the January death spike), and also a further fall in births.
Deaths increased by 7.6% in January 2026, but decreased in February (-28.3%) with an overall drop compared to 2025. Maybe a pull forward effect?
Births in Hong Kong are also falling off a cliff; down 17.8% in January, and 23.5% in February to give a loss of 20.6% compared to same period in 2025.
Taking a longer view: Hong Kong births have fallen by 46.0% and deaths have risen by 10.6% between 2019 and 2026. 2026 data is provisional being averaged based on only 2 months’ data.
Hong Kong has lost 113,455 population since January 2020.
Most countries publish annual data on maternal deaths, still births, perinatal, neonatal and infant mortality. For those countries whose data I have seen still birth, and infant death rates are typically rising. Reflecting poorer population health and reduced fecundity since 2021. Annual data is typically quite delayed release. For example, Malaysia 2025 data will be released in September, Philippines 2025 will be released in January next year, Hong Kong data by August, if I recall correctly. Australia data also late this year.
Early miscarriages are not documented, unless they happen following a med in which case they might be documented in a system like vaers.
Super Sally this is great work, as always. The Taiwan charts are especially devastating. I have also seen evidence of the bivalent booster timing causing increased mortality in the United States.
Thanks for your vigilance!