News from the Philippines: Missing Students. Is this the Canary in the Coalmine for Population Stagnation and Pending Depopulation. SIM Registration Monkey Business. Australian-Philippines Alliance.

Leachon changes career path, perhaps another victim of the Dengvaxia Tragedy. Spiralling costs affect business and will be passed on. Acute Viral Illness hits School Kids. Masking Doesn't Work!

School is back in the Philippines with the resumption of public school classes for the 2023-2024 School Year. Officials are raising alarms over missing students. Why are they missing? Some at least would have gotten out of the habit of study and will never go back after the disruption of cancelled schools over pandemic years. Some may have been sidelined by poverty. Others may not be fit to attend school for whatever reasons.

More comment, here. It is not clear whether this drop is in new enrollees (i.e. entering grade school) or overall drop from all grades.

But we may also be observing the population demographic shift as the population moves away from growth. That shift starts with fewer children being born!

Philippines population as of the 2020 Census & Current Estimations

From PSA, here the Philippines population pyramid. It may be noted that as of 2020 the number of children had already started to decrease. Some of those children in 2020’s under 5 group should have been entering school this school year. From here-on out school enrollment is going to drop year by year as the numbers of Filipino children decrease.

UN data on population seems to be an over-estimation. While UN sources put the Philippines current 2023 population at 117.34 million, the latest PSA Population Census pegged the population as of 1st May 2020 at 109,035,343.

Using PSA’s monthly registered live birth and death data from 1st May up to 31st December 2022 (still preliminary), I can calculate that the Philippines population up to the end of 2022 is 110,870,649. Assuming that the 2023 natural increase will be similar to that of 2022, I then arrive at a current population somewhere in the range of 111.3 million as of August 2023; about 6 million short of the UN estimates.

If births rates continue to fall and death rates continue to rise, the Philippines could be hitting population decline within only a few years. I used excel forecast against current 2015 to 2022 data, to predict what might happen if trending continues.

Population may peak as early as 2025, though more likely by 2029, and thereafter decline as births continue to decline and deaths increase.

Australia-Philippines Relations

Australia’s Prime Minister Albanese arrived in the Philippines last 7th September, Thursday evening, the first visit of an Australian Prime Minister in over 30 years. Marcos and Albanese are holding talks on building trade and strategic relations between their nations.

Monkey Business

So much for SIM registration to avoid scams. The scams are blossoming with many cell phone users losing money. It must be easy for scammers, as even monkeys can register a SIM card without trouble.

Regular citizens have lost out yet again. Forced to register using confidential personal information to keep their phones working (many with post-paid accounts were registered automatically by the telecos without specific permission) and now it seems that scammers can easily find and take advantage of personal information from the SIM registration system.

Appointed, Demoted, Resigned. Is He Another Dengvaxia Victim? A Change in Career Path For Health Influencer Leachon.

Dr. Tony Leachon, cardiologist, health influencer has had a dramatic few weeks. First he was appointed on August 11th by the DOH as Consultant for Non-Communicable Diseases, with a monthly salary of PHP100,000.00 (USD1,760).

Then his appointment was challenged during budget hearings by Senator Garin who claimed he was not an expert. On 8th September, Leachon gracefully advised that he would revert to an advisory role to the DOH.

A few days later, on 12th September, he has very publicly resigned for personal reasons and “to focus on family and his future”.

Certainly, in the Philippines, Politics and Health are intricately entwined. That is a brutal combination. Is Senator Garin going for blood, even that of DOH head Herbosa for having dared to entertain Leachon!

After all, she is the defendant in the Dengvaxia Case, where Dr. Leachon has testified on behalf of the victims.

Dr. Leachon is very active on social media, particularly X, and is making statements about his situation. I will be watching developments with great interest. Will he stand up and share what he knows, even beyond Dengvaxia? Will he be on the side of the people?

Expenses Spiral for Businesses, and will be passed on to Consumers

Inflation is resulting in rising costs for business, and these will be passed on to consumers. Life will continue to be challenging for Filipinos, and most particularly minimum daily wage earners, whose incomes are hardly (or actually not) keeping up.

Acute Viral Illness Currently Hitting School Children

There is an acute highly contagious viral illness hitting school children in Manila and local provinces. This illness started in schools late last week and has spread like wildfire to many schools and colleges: there are reports of up to half of classes off sick on a single day, this week.

The illness is highly contagious, likely in the 24 hours before the child shows any symptoms. Incubation is short probably 24 to 48 hours. The main symptoms are fevers, fatigue, headache and body pain, malaise. Some kids develop a cough. Some children are experiencing gastrointestinal symptoms.

While the illness is unpleasant and needs supportive care, hydration and fever management being key (I use cool compress rather than fever reducing medicines considering that fever is critical for the immune system to fight back), it seems to be self-limiting and short-lived. All of the kids whose cases I have heard, seem to recover within 24 hours to a few days.

Parents do not seem to be getting sick. Thus, this must be something adults are typically already immune to.

While I am hearing of schools bringing back masking to counter this illness, that will not work! The virus is too small to be stopped by a mask. Besides, it is already too late, the illness has exploded beyond all possibility of control. It will run its course and be over very quickly.

What a shame that wasn’t allowed to happen with Covid-19.

Masking Doesn’t Work! Will It Ever Be Dropped?

Final word from Jemy Gatdula summarizing the latest evidence on masking and how they not only don’t work, but they cause damage.