Philippines 2023 Vital Statics Final Release shows a 2.2% Increase in Mortality & a 0.5% Decrease in Births. 2023 Infant Mortality Hit its Highest Rate Since 2001 with 15 deaths/1000 Live Births.
If outwards migration (OFW and permanent departures) is considered, Philippine could well have had an effective population decline in the range of half a million in 2023. Public dialogue is required!
2023 Birth Statistics
PSA released the final 2023 Birth Statistics on December 20, 2024, reporting 1,448,522 live births corresponding to a crude birth rate of 12.8 per 1000 population. 52% of babies born were male. The highest monthly births were reported for September (187 births/hr), while June (154/hr) had the lowest monthly births. 9/10 births were medically attended by a health professional with 70% of births be attended by physician, 23.6% by a midwife, and 4.5% by a hilot or traditional birth attendant, and 9/10 births also took place in a health facility.
58.2% of babies were born to unwed mothers.
With regards to infant size, 9/10 babies weighed at least 2.5 kg with the median birth weight being 3kg.
28% of babies were born to mother aged between 25 and 29 with median maternal age of mothers being 28. 9.8% of babies being born to adolescents aged 19 and younger, with only 0.26% of these being younger than 15.
Informatory birth tables extracted from the PSA data release are set out.
Philippines has experienced a 13.5% loss in births since 2019, the last typical year. The low registration of births in 2020 and 2021, under harsh lockdown, should be at least partially due to non-registrations. However, the drop in births in 2022 and 2023 when normal population mobility was resume is highly concerning and represents a rapid decline in births rates. This should not be happening because the median age in the Philippines is around 25.7 years, with more than half the population well within childbearing age.
Registered monthly births are shown in dark blue. In early 2023 births were still above 2021 and 2022 levels. By the mid-year births were clearly declining and had dropped to unprecedented lows. This trending is concerning, and it is likely that 2024 birth rates will be much lower than 2023 levels. There is already evidence of this in the preliminary 2024 birth data which shows registered deaths in 2024 running at least 14% lower than 2023 births, as reported in my last stack - here.
I forecast expected births using excel forecast and trending from 2012 (the highest birth year) to 2019. Registered births in 2023 are nearly 10% lower than would have been expected based on prior trending.
Here are monthly births listed from 2018 to 2023, with key Covid-19 vaccination rollout dates marked. The annual birth peak is dropping from 2020 to 2022 and 2023.
Adolescent pregnancy has been dropping over time from 11% in 2018 to 9.8% in 2023. Curiously though, pregnancy in the youngest girls aged < 15 has been rising over time, even while the births in girls aged 15- 19 has been declining consistently. Is this related to older girls having access to sex education and family planning that the younger girls don’t?
Are the younger cohort healthier? Only 50% of children aged 5 - 11 Covid-19 vaccines starting in 2022 vs. nearly all children aged 12 and above. The following data by Steve Kirsch reported that vaccinated women in peak childbearing years are 66% less likely to give birth than unvaccinated women.
Are the younger girls hapless victims of family abuse, sex trade, or trafficking? Questions surrounding plummeting birthrates desperately need answers!
2023 Registered All-Cause Mortality
PSA released the final 2023 Death Statistics on January 31, 2025, reporting 694,821 registered deaths corresponding to a crude death rate of 6.2 per 1000 population, and an increase of 2.2% since 2022. The highest number of deaths occurred in November (82 deaths/hr) and the lowest in September (77 deaths/hr).
Males accounted for 56.6% of deaths. Aside from infants aged less than 1, deaths were more frequent in older people. Younger men died at higher rates than younger women, while older women died in higher numbers than older men: simple evidence that fewer men live long enough to die at advanced ages.
5/10 deaths were attended by a health care provider, 52.9% of deaths occurred at home, and only 0.6% of people died in places other than at home or in a health-care facility.
Informatory death tables extracted from the PSA data release are set out.
There has been a 12% increase in deaths between 2019 and 2023. There has not been any compensatory decrease in deaths after the mass deaths in 2021; deaths remained considerably higher than prior levels.
This is abundantly clear from the 2000 - 2019 deaths that I used to forecast expected deaths for 2020 through to 2025. Deaths in 2023 are running 4.5% above expected.
By month deaths are set out. Deaths in 2023 are running above all prior death levels, aside from 2021, and January and August 2022.
Using average deaths from 2015-2019 as baseline, there have been more than 500,000 excess deaths in the Philippines since 2020. There has never been any formal public statement about the cause of these deaths. The excess deaths enquiry has not prospered or proceeded since mid-2024.
Examining deaths by age group, only persons aged 1 to 39 had death counts lower than 2022. Babies aged < 1 year of age had a 7.6% increase in deaths. The largest adult increase in deaths were in adults aged 70 - 79.
Considering the rise in infant deaths in 2023, which could be due to poorer maternal health and the birth of medically fragile babies, or could be due to other factors in the first year of life, I further reviewed infant mortality data.
Following are monthly infant deaths from 2018 to 2023. There was a big spike in infant deaths in 2018 but balanced by a big drop in early 2019. However, from 2019 onwards infant deaths have been rising.
This is even more concerning as it goes hand-in-hand with falling births.
When infant death rates are examined, 2023 shows the highest infant death rate per 1000 registered live births since 2001. Infant deaths are the visible outcome of generally poorer infant health, and may be the tip of the iceberg for generally poorer pediatric health. This is catastrophic for the nation’s children and its future! Causes need to be found and countered.
I examined maternal deaths, infant deaths and fetal deaths from 2018 to 2023. Maternal deaths peaked in 2021 and dropped thereafter. Infant deaths were much lower under lockdowns, particularly in 2020. Recall that children could not access medical care easily in 2020. Babies could not attend well-child visits and could not be vaccinated. This situation improved somewhat in 2021, but normal mobility was not permitted until 2022. Deaths rose in 2021, and further in 2022. There is no public domain fetal death data available for 2019 and 2020. Peak fetal deaths were observed in 2021.
Top cause of death for infants are conditions arising in the immediate perinatal period. Infant deaths in 2020 and 2021 were lower for respiratory and infectious diseases even as % of deaths, which is likely due to most deaths in that period being declared as due to Covid-19 regardless of the proximal cause. The concerning infant COD item is the increase in fatal congenital malformations, deformations and chromosomal abnormalities. This trending might be related to maternal receipt of mRNA products and deserves investigation.
Heart disease, cancer and cerebrovascular diseases are the leading causes of death in the Philippines.
PSA provides table showing the top 10 causes of death by numbers.
Natural Increase
Natural population increase is births - deaths. In the Philippines, this number is dropping steadily, landing at 753,701 in 2023.
The Philippines also loses population via migration. DMW (Department of Migrant Workers) OFW (overseas Filipino Workers) migration data shows that in 2023 there were 2,330,720 deployed OFWs, 1,125,052 more than in 2022.
2023 Births - 2023 Deaths - 2023 Outward OFW Migration = Est. Population Change
1,448,522 Births - 694,821 Deaths - 1,125,052 Outwards Migration = 361,351 LOSS
This figure represents physical losses due to OFW departures (supposedly temporary departures), who are still citizens. However, there are also Filipinos who migrate permanently looking for better life opportunities; I have not found numbers for this group but imagine it could easily number say 200,000 individuals in a year.
Could the Philippines have effectively lost over half a million population in 2023? Alarms need to be raised, particularly in light of the continued drop in births and rising deaths.
In coming days, I will examine and present the Philippines by-region births and deaths data for 2023. Please stand by for further stacks!
I'm very curious about ethnic demographics I.e. Binondo district and how this is affecting wealthier areas as opposed to poverty in Tondo. I'm curious if everyone was getting the same sauce.