Philippines 2024 Vital Statistics for NCR Hint at Rising Deaths and Plummeting Births in 2024 in Still Provisional Data. Could this give a National Natural Population Decrease of 25% in 2024?

PSA released 2024 Data for January to August/September, as of 31 December 2024 on 3 March 2025. While data is still provisional births could drop by >10%, and deaths could rise >4+% compared to 2023.

Philippines has yet to finalize its 2024 vital statistics data. The PSA made their 5th release of provisional 2024 vital statistics data, births, deaths, marriages, as of 31 December 2024 on 3rd March 2025.

Comparing the equivalent release period in 2023 with 2024 (dotted lines), it appears that Philippines January 2024 deaths were similar to 2023, February deaths were slightly higher, and data drops off / is incomplete thereafter. Recording and compilation of vital statistics data seems considerably delayed in 2024 compared to 2023.

2024 birth data is far more concerning! There appears to be a step drop in birth registrations in 2024 somewhat greater than 13%. By this time in 2023, data from January to May was less than 5% from its final value. Yet, 2024 data is running 13 to 26% lower than the equivalent data in 2023. Could this represent a pending > 10% new loss of births in 2024?

Marriages in 2024 are down compared to 2023 and look likely to post a new record low, if trending continues. Regardless, more than half of babies are born out of wedlock (58.2% in 2023), so marriage (or lack thereof) is no barrier to reproduction in the Philippines.

Philippines 2024 registered deaths seem similar to 2023 deaths for January and February and drop off thereafter. I suspect this is due to delayed registrations collation rather than any real lowering of deaths.

2024 births are alarming. They run about 20,000 lower than 2023 levels for January and February and then drop off, no doubt due to late and incomplete registrations, thereafter. This data is said to be compiled as of December 2024; it should already be substantially complete for the early months of 2024.

Here is what combined national births and deaths plotted over time look like, from 2019 to latest available 2024 data. Births show falling and deaths show rising trending; 2024 data is dashed to show that it is still provisional.

Considering that all National Capital Region (NCR) births and deaths are reported directly to the central Philippines Statistics Office, and birth and death certificates are more standard procedures in the metropolis, the NCR data should be indicative of national trending, at least for the first half of 2024.

Indeed, NCR deaths for 2024 are running above 2023 levels indicating no relief from ongoing high mortality. For January to May, the average increase vs. 2023 is currently at 4.8%, and may still rise.

NCR births for 2024 January to July run from -6% to -15% below 2023 levels.

Trending of births and deaths from 2019 to latest 2024 data is plotted. Deaths are clearly rising over time, with no compensation for the mass excess deaths from 2020 through to 2022. Births show continued downward trending.

If NCR births and deaths, % change vs. 2023, are applied to 2023 vital statistics data, the following might be births and deaths trending into 2024. An overall 10.8% new drop in births and a 4.4% rise in deaths could result in a 25% drop in natural population increase for 2024; with natural population growth almost halved since 2019.

I very much hope this projection for 2024 is wrong! Natural population growth (births - deaths) is far below new outward migration (temporary and permanent), and the Philippines population will be contracting.

I highly recommend watching this presentation on implications and causes of shrinking population. The alarm needs to be raised! Widely! If we do not act, we will soon be beyond the point of ready recovery. We haven’t yet considered infertility, where people simply cannot have even the number of children they want!

In terms of various provisional Causes of Death (COD), which were also released on 3rd March 2024, there is no change in contribution of various COD compared to prior recent trending. Nearly 20% of all deaths are attributed to heart disease, followed by Cancer (11.1%), and Cerebrovascular Disease (stroke) at 10%. These are lifestyle diseases and also known to be exacerbated by the Covid-19 vaccines. The state of heath in the Philippines is in a critical state.

This is made worse when most Filipinos cannot afford adequate health care or medical interventions.

Ironically, indigent (non-working poor and working class) Filipinos can get “free” care, while professional class Filipinos can lose everything (all assets, all resources of their family), over a single serious health event. I have seen this first-hand in recent months! As discussed with a Congressman friend this morning, better to die quickly without needing medical care, than to get their family burdened by health requirements. Such is the poverty gap, particularly for working and professional Filipinos.

There is much to be done in this beloved nation! I hope this data will help. Until next post!