Philippines Excess Mortality: when taken for 2021 is at 33.1%. But When Taken Covering Vaccine Rollout From March 2021 and up to the Completed Data as of September 2021 Shows 64% Excess Mortality.

Philippines experienced 64% excess mortality between March and September 2021. Excess mortality increased each month in lockstep with the increase in Covid-19 vaccines rollout.

I have revisited the Philippines overall mortality data with respect to forecast expected deaths and actual deaths for 2020 and 2021. I have presented these data also with respect to the Covid-19 deaths. First some key definitions for those who need them.

Key Definitions

Excess Mortality: these are deaths higher than what is expected from historical trends. Baring war, or some natural catastrophe, death trends in countries are typically steady over time with only small % changes. Thus excess mortality is an excellent indicator of overall population health and well being.

Forecast Mortality: this was calculated for 2020 and 2021 using the excel forecast tool with input 5 years historical death data from 2015 to 2019. The output is a forecast mortality and a confidence upper and lower bound. The forecast mortality is a more accurate way to assess actual deaths than simply comparing to one or more previous years, because it is adjusted over time and with reference to typical patterns of deaths.

Source Data

All deaths in 2020 and 2021 were referenced against forecast (excel forecast) expected deaths based on historical vital statistics data from 2015 to 2019. All vital statistics were taken from Philippines Statistics Authority (psa.gov.ph) public domain data. All Covid-19 death data is taken from the Philippines Department of Health (DOH) Covid-19 Tracker (last data release on 23 July 2022).

Evaluation of 2020 and 2021 All Cause Mortality in The Philippines

My previous analyses have shown that some areas, particularly highly urbanized areas, did have some excess deaths in 2020. However, overall, there were no excess deaths in the Philippines in 2020 despite the stringent lockdowns.

The following table sets out the key data for historical deaths, and the 2020 and 2021 forecast and actual deaths, including Covid-19 deaths. The details in this table are elaborated in figures in this document for better clarity.

The following figure presents the registered deaths from 2015 to 2021. The 2015 to 2019 data is used to show typical death patterns and was also used to calculate the expected deaths in 2020 and 2021, using the excel forecast tool. Note that the last quarter vital statistics (registered death data) for 2021 is still incomplete.

Excess deaths for the entire 2021 are 33.1% above normal. Excess deaths rose considerably starting in March 2021 and increased up to September 2021, at 2.36x the forecast level. In September 2021 there were 66,325 more deaths than would have been expected from historical patterns!

While there was a small excess deaths in February of 2021 (3,140, at the upper bound of the excel forecast), the major increase in excess deaths started in March 2021. As the registered death data is relatively complete up to September 2021, it is more accurate to assess the excess deaths specifically for the 7 months between March and September 2021. A forecast comparison between the entire year and just the 7 months is set out. Between March and September 2021, excess deaths are 64% above normal.

The historical deaths from 2015 to 2019, and the actual and deaths and forecast deaths for each month are set out. Death rise every month, peaking at 86.1% excess deaths in August of 2021 (1.86 higher than usual) and 136.4% in September 2021 (2.36 x higher than usual).

The deaths being attributed to Covid-19 are far too low to explain the excess deaths in 2021. There must be another cause!

Here is the Covid-19 Vaccine rollout. Referenced % of vaccinations is from OWID, and the number of vaccines delivered is from the Philippines Department of Health Covid-19 Vaccination Tracker. By the end of September only 18.8% of the population was “fully vaccinated”. By the end of 2021 43.6% of people were vaccinated. If the vaccines are implicated in the increase in excess deaths, the end of the year death data could well increase further, considerably.

The levels of excess deaths reported here are historically unprecedented. Never before have excess annual deaths changed by more than a low single digit %. A 10% increase in all cause mortality is considered catastrophic! What more 33%, and even 64%!

These excess deaths are extending over time, with no return to baseline. This is devastating and alarming. These deaths are caused by an external escalating factor. The only escalating factor in 2021 was the vaccine rollout. If the vaccines are implicated (they are) then the excess deaths will continue to escalate for 2021 and into 2022!

This is genocide / democide! Is anyone listening? Is anyone paying attention? How can this be allowed to continue unheeded! Please read, please ask questions, please share! Please demand answers!