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Philippines Birth and Death Trending; Breakdown of 5-Year Data (2017-2021) by Region and by NCR Cities.
Only one city in NCR (Manila), one region (BARMM) had increasing birth rates in 2021. Current trending shows negative population growth for some regions starts in 2023, for NCR cities starts in 2022.
One of my readers asked me to review deaths vs. births in the recently released 2021 vital statistics.
lease note that the released 2021 vital statistics are only valid as of 31 March 2022. Registered deaths and births, may both still rise in the final data set when late registration are finally incorporated.
Overall, patterns of rising deaths and falling births can be observed. If these patterns continue, overall deaths would likely exceed overall births by 2028. This pattern could change for the better, or worse, over time. International data is not reassuring as soaring deaths and plummeting births are being observed in many counties. Philippines 2022 data is not yet complete enough to be included or to conduct any evaluation.
I broke down the historical and current births and deaths by region. Some regions could expect to move into negative population growth by 2023, others in subsequent years up to 2029.
Only BARMM had increasing birth rates in 2021 compared to prior years, although the overall trending was still downwards. Foreign country registered births are provided simply for completeness of data. No foreign births were recorded in the 2021 data available to date.
I further broke down National Capital Region (NCR) births and deaths by city. Only one city, Malabon had overt negative population growth in 2021 in currently released data (births lower than deaths) with deaths exceeding births by 98 persons. Two cities, Manila and Pateros had positive birth rate growth in 2021; all other cities had falling birth rates. All cities had rising deaths rates in 2021. Birth - death plots with trending lines are set out. These are simple trend lines; actual final outcomes may be different; longer or shorter.
Regardless, many cities in NCR will expect negative population growth to commence within the next few years.
All other cities had falling registered birth and rising deaths.
The imminent negative population growth rate could result in lowered economic growth. Fewer babies and more deaths will result ultimately in a smaller workforce, lower demand for services, and lower tax base. If this happens suddenly and escalates rapidly, as seems to be occurring in many nations now, it could be destabilizing.
Calling for investigation on these trending data. Raising the alarm for the beginnings of population collapse within this decade! Regardless of the cause, this trend may be irreversible! Similar tends are becoming apparent worldwide. They will need to be carefully planned for and managed.