Philippines Case Study: Cordillera Administrative Region.

This region had below expected deaths in 2020. However deaths soared in 2021 with overall excesses ranging from 19 to 56% in these provinces. Peak deaths timing matched Covid-19 Vaccine Rollouts.

The Philippines Cordillera Administrative Region (CAR) encompasses the Cordillera Central Mountain range of Luzon, and includes the provinces of Abra, Benguet, Ifugao, Kalinga, Mountain Province, and Apayao. It had a total population of 1,797,660 in the 2020 census.

For this analysis I have provided overall data for the CAR, as well as a breakdown by province: Baguio City was treated separately, even though it is a city in Benguet Province, to match the government’s presentation and breakdowns of data. All deaths in 2020 and 2021 were referenced against forecast (excel forecast) expected deaths based on historical vital statistics data from 2015 to 2019. All vital statistics were taken from Philippines Statistics Authority (psa.gov.ph) public domain data. All Covid-19 death data is taken from the Philippines Department of Health (DOH) Covid-19 Tracker (last data release on 23 July 2022).

CAR had no excess deaths in 2020. Deaths were typically below forecast levels, and even below the forecast lower bounds. 2021 deaths were extremely high, ranging from 19 to 56% above forecast levels. There is no historical precedent for this level of excess deaths.

All cause deaths in every province showed two peaks; the first in the 2nd quarter, and a much higher peak in the 3rd quarter. The vast majority of the excess deaths occurred in 3rd quarter of 2021, after the covid-19 vaccines were rolled out to the population. Covid-19 deaths are not sufficient to explain the excess deaths which are 1 to 4.2x higher. Covid-19 is known to be fatal to people with multiple severe comorbidities who have limited lifespan; thus these people are usually within expected typical deaths, and do not contribute to excess deaths.

Covid-19 deaths in CAR are set out from March 2020 to June 2022. Overall 2021 deaths reported as due to covid-19 were 19.2x higher than covid-19 deaths in 2020 (range 10 to 132x). Deaths from covid-19 rose after the initial introduction of the covid-19 vaccines in March 2021, and soared after the rollout of the Covid-19 vaccines to the general population in August 2021.

The average age of Covid-19 deaths in 2020 was 63.9 (range 0 to 97). The average age of Covid-19 in 2021 was 62.6. The average age of Covid-19 deaths in 2022 was 61.8. Why is the age of death moving into younger people even as the virus is reported as becoming less pathogenic over time. 57% of the deaths were male, and 43% were female.

Historical deaths, and overall forecast and actual deaths for 2021 is plotted for CAR and each of the provinces. Monthly deaths are set out as well to show the patterns and spikes in deaths. It is self explanatory.

These data shows devastating losses of life above normal levels, with the excess deaths concentrated in certain months. Such high excess deaths must be due to outside forces. The pattern and escalation of these deaths make the vaccines (either direct adverse events / increased susceptibility to covid-19 and other illness), the most likely cause. There is no other change in 2021 that could explain these deaths!

The lack of data (not yet released) for the last quarter of 2021 is very troubling. It should be available and be almost complete (typically it takes up to 4 months for substantially complete vital statistics data to be collated by PSA and reported).

November and December of 2021 saw a mass vaccination push to try to include all persons who had not yet taken vaccines. Vaccine uptakes rose rapidly in these months. Further, the booster dose programs started in November of 2021. If the vaccines are implicated in causing deaths, the final excess deaths from October to December may still rise considerably.

Please review and share this data. The excess deaths are tragic, massive and unprecedented. The cause must be identified, and actions must be taken to ensure that this will never happen again. Deaths are only part of the picture. Where there are excess deaths, there also must be excess ill health and injury that has not (yet) resulted in death.

If the causative factors are still in play (they certainly are and they are being promoted aggressively) they must be immediately stopped to prevent further loss of life!

Philippines Statistics Authority and any responsible officials are entreated to facilitate the timely public release of vital statistics data! PSA, DOH you are on notice! This is your data. You should already know what I am presenting!