Philippines Case Study No. 2: Ilocos Region; Ilocos Norte, Ilocos Sur, La Union, Pangasinan. There Were No Excess Deaths in 2020 but 48% in 2021. Excess Deaths/Covid-19 Deaths Multiplier was 8.5.

Pangasinan fared far worse. The multiplier from Covid-19 deaths to excess deaths was 12, with the 60% excess deaths occurring within only a few months and peaking in September in preliminary data.

Ilocos Region, officially designated as Region I, is an administrative region in the Philippines in the northwest of Luzon. With an area of about 409 sq.km, it includes the provinces of Ilocos Norte, Ilocos Sur, La Union, and Pangasinan. In 2020 it had a population of 5,301,139 or 4.86% of the population of the Philippines.

DOH Covid-19 Tracking Data and Philippines Statistics Authority Population Data was used to assess excess deaths and Covid-19 deaths in 2020 and 2021. I used historical registered death data from 2015 to 2019 to forecast, using the excel forecast tool, the expected deaths in 2020 and 2021, and then compared this with the actual registered deaths. 2021 data is still incomplete, particularly for the 4th quarter of 2021; registered deaths will increase when the final data is available.

All Cause Annual Mortality 2015 to 2021

All cause mortality is presented plotted against forecast mortality. There were no excess deaths in 2020 with 1,410 fewer deaths than forecast. However, there were 16,947 excess deaths in 2021.

This data is now broken down to better show the excess deaths for each province.

The highest excess deaths are seen in Pangasinan, which also has the largest population. While Region I has an overall excess deaths of 48%, Ilocos Sur fares relatively well with only 18.4% (922) excess deaths, while Pangasinan fares dismally with nearly 60% (12,104) excess deaths.

Historical Monthly Patterns of Deaths, and Excess Deaths in 2021

The patterns of excess deaths in 2021 are compared against historical deaths since 2015, and also by month. Both the overall Region I deaths and the by province deaths are set out. For the entire province, excess deaths in 2021 first became apparent in April and May, fell slightly in June, and then soared through to September 2021. September 2021 excess deaths are 2.8x and 3.1x higher than the corresponding deaths in 2019 and 2020, respectively. End of year data is incomplete.

The same breakdown is done by province to better show monthly death patterns.

Ilocos Norte had relatively few excess deaths until July 2021. Excess deaths peak in August, with the deaths being 2.8 and 3.0x higher than the respective 2019 and 2020 registered (normal level) deaths.

The Ilocos Sur rise in deaths is delayed by one month. It has relatively few excess deaths from May to July, until August when deaths rise considerably, and then peak in September at 2.4 and 2.5x the 2019 and 2020 levels.

La Union has a slow rise in excess deaths starting in April and then rising suddenly to the maximum peak excess deaths in September at 2.7 and 2.9x the 2019 and 2020 levels. Peak deaths also remain high in October at 2.0 and 2.6x the 2019 and 2020 levels, respectively.

Pangasinan first shows a slight rise in April with a first small peak in May, dropping in June and then rising rapidly in August and September. The September peak is 3.1 and 3.5x higher than the 2019 and 2020 levels, respectively.

The death peaks shown in these plots are astounding, devastating and unprecedented. Whenever I discuss excess deaths, I am always asked if they could be attributed to Covid-19 infection. Thus, I evaluate the covid-19 attributed deaths in these four provinces since the beginning of the pandemic.

Covid-19 Attributed Deaths in Region I (Ilocos Region)

This table sets out total covid-19 attributed deaths since the start of the Pandemic and these same deaths by year. There were relatively few deaths in 2020, and 2022. Deaths in 2021 were much higher.

Plotted here are the patterns of reported Covid-19 deaths by province.

The peaks of Covid-19 deaths are concurrent with the peaks in excess deaths shown previously, however the magnitude of the Covid-19 deaths are far lower, as tabulated. Further, we must be reminded that most Covid-19 deaths occur in persons with multiple comorbidities and limited life expectancy, and thus these deaths may be part of the typical, rather than the excess deaths.

2021 Covid-19 deaths are compared against the 2021 excess deaths, where excess deaths are computed by deducting 2021 forecast deaths from actual registered deaths. The multiplier for excess deaths over Covid-19 deaths ranged from 3.8 to 12.0x, with the entire Region I having 8.5x more excess deaths than can simply be explained by Covid-19.

If these 16,947 excess deaths cannot be explained by Covid-19 (they can’t be), then the families of the deceased should at least be granted the respect of determining the actual cause of these deaths. Efforts should also be made to protect other citizens from the same fate!

Summary and Conclusion

There were no excess deaths in 2020, with 1,410 fewer deaths than forecast. The deaths in 2020 were lower than the forecast values, though still all except La Union, which was below, were within the forecast range variability.

2021 deaths were well above the forecast values and ranges. The 16,947 excess deaths cannot be explained by Covid-19 to which only 1,999 deaths were attributed in 2021.

Furthermore, from review of the excess deaths by month in 2021, it is apparent that the start and patterns of excess deaths were abrupt, different in different provinces, and constrained mostly within the 3rd quarter of 2021. When the 4th quarter data is complete, the excess deaths picture may be considerably worse than has been presented here.

Historically and typically month on month and year on year all cause mortality do not vary by more than single % points. Excess deaths in any single period due to the deaths of vulnerable persons are followed by below typical deaths in the next period as the population again builds up vulnerable persons. This has not happened in 2021. The patterns of excess deaths and their acceleration are not normal, and are best explained as reflective of external causes. The deaths are sustained over months, indicative of an ongoing assault / cause. Both the rises in covid-19 deaths and the rises in excess deaths are concurrent with covid-19 vaccine rollouts. The relationship of the different start of rise in excess deaths in different provinces should be correlated against the roll out of vaccines in those provinces.

International researchers and data analysts are tying the Covid-19 vaccines in as causal for a substantial portion of the excess deaths observed in 2021, and ongoing into 2022 in their countries. In the Philippines, insufficient 2022 data has been released to allow any assessment of excess deaths this year. The 2021 data has also not been completed.

Given that it is now at August 2022 and only very preliminary 2022 January and February registered death data has been released, there is an urgent need for updated data release. In 2021 data was released monthly, and each month’s data was substantially complete within 3 to 4 months. If data for 2021 and for the first half of 2022 has not been released, it is already time to ask why. Is data being hidden? If so, to what purpose? Hundreds of 1000s of excess deaths cannot be hidden indefinitely. What about those who were injured and not killed? The deaths may be only the tip of the iceberg of a far greater devastation which is still ongoing!

I add my call for urgent, critical and independent assessment of the data presented.

At this point, without any other identifiable causes for such extreme excess deaths, the vaccine must be considered guilty until proven otherwise! Any authorities refusing to look fairly and objectively at this publicly available data may be guilty of willful blindness. There is already so much information available that not knowing is no defense. Not acting makes one party to the ongoing and unfolding tragedy of injuries and deaths!

I call on fellow citizens to research, to become aware, and to make rational decisions for yourself and your loved ones!