Philippines Population Loss in 2021

Based on available PSA data to December 2021

I wanted to further review the Philippines probable loss of population in 2021, using a comparison with 2019, the last year of normal data patterns for population.

I did not make any adjustment on the 2019 data for deaths and births, I simply used it as a baseline. Given the 10-year historical variation in year on year deaths, the 2019 baseline data will probably be within 5% of what would have happened by 2021 if there had been no pandemic, no lockdowns, no mass population health measures.

I also took the 2019 birth data as a baseline. From 10-year historical data the maximum variation was -0.5 to 2.5%, and so the 2019 birth assumptions are likely within a few % points of what we would have expected in 2021.

I did a further adjustment, not previously incorporated in my evaluations. I know that the data presented by PSA is still preliminary and there are expected considerable delayed registrations affecting data. Thus, although the latest data set includes registrations up to October, the October data set is excluded as it is too incomplete. I then wanted to know how complete September’s data set might be. I looked at the previous upload where data up to August had been included. I took the previous month data set of July and looked at how much the death registrations increased by the next data drop, and used this to adjust the second to last monthly data (Sept 2021). Thus I will adjust the September death data by +8.7%, and the birth data by + 18.4% to somewhat account for late death and birth registrations. Analyses can be updated once complete data is available.

Using this adjustment approach, the total births for September improved from 101,925 to 120,725, and the registered deaths increased from 103,322 to 112,283. I then calculated, with reference to 2019 monthly data, the preliminary monthly population losses for the period from January to September of 2021 in terms of babies not born and registered, and excess registered deaths. This comes to 493,828.

Note that this number of nearly half a million is INDICATIVE ONLY, as the PSA data is not finalized and the year on year population change that would have occurred if there had been no public interventions is not known and cannot be adjusted for by me.

Data to allow estimation of the last quarter population losses for October, November, and December 2021 are not yet known. However if the apparent trend continues the monthly losses in the last months of the year and onwards into 2022 will be progressively worse, as shown with predictive trendlines inserted.

There is no historical precedent to explain these! The alarm is raised!