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Philippines Population Vital Statistics - By Region All-Cause Mortality Over the Pandemic Years with Comparison to 2019. Regional Excess Deaths in 2021 Ranged from 25 to 60%.
Very few regions had excess deaths in 2020, the first year of the pandemic; most had lower than typical deaths. Every region had mass excess deaths in 2021, all starting March 2021 or later.
All-cause mortality is a standard population measure and is typically quite stable over time reflecting people dying from old age and small number of deaths from injuries, accidents and other causes. It is excellent indicator of population health. A healthy population only has very slow changes in mortality over time mostly reflecting population aging. All-cause mortality looks at overall outcomes.
Excess Deaths are deaths that are not expected and are in excess of the normal population deaths. These represent early deaths of people who would have died some time in the future. Excess deaths in any period are typically followed by lower deaths in subsequent periods until a new vulnerable population has built up to return the population to it’s typical average death rates.
Had the pandemic measures imposed been successful, over time there should have been a reduction in Covid-19 cases, a reduction in Covid-19 deaths, and a reduction in all-cause mortality as the population health improved.
In 2020, there were no excess deaths compared to 2019. However, the Philippines experienced 43.2% excess deaths in 2021, which is unheard of in the context that an excess death rate of even 10% is a 1-in-200-year event. Excess deaths started in March of 2021 and rose to a peak 2.2x higher than 2020 levels in September 2021.
2021 fared very poorly compared to historical data in terms of change in death rates with 43.2% rise since the prior year. Historically maximum year on year change was 5.7%, average variation was 2%.
Breakdown of the 2021 excess deaths by age, showed that older people were inordinately more affected than younger people. Most age-groups, except 60 - 74 had no increase in deaths in 2020 vs. 2019. Babies and children up to 9 years of age had no excess in 2021. All other age-groups experienced excess deaths in 2021.
Very few regions had excess deaths in 2020; pnly NCR, Calabarzon, Central Visayas and BARMM had an increase in deaths in 2020 vs. 2019, the first year of the pandemic. The highest excess deaths in 2020 was 57.9% in BARMM, followed by 7.3% in NCR, 3.1% in Calabarzon, and 0.28% in Central Visayas. All other regions had below 2019 deaths.
Excess deaths occurred across all regions of the Philippines, starting in March 2021 or later. Coincidentally, March 2021 was the official rollout of Covid-19 Vaccines. Most regions also had two peaks of excess deaths in 2021, the first in March-April, the second in August - October. Somehow these peaks in deaths may be correlated with first the rollout to health care workers and vulnerable populations, and the second to the rollout of vaccines to the general population which started by mid-year to 3rd quarter 2021.
BARMM had rising deaths in both 2020 and 2021 to give a rise in deaths of 127% between 2019 and 2021 or 2.27 times higher deaths in 2021 than 2019.
There were excess deaths across every region in 2021. These ranged from 25% excess in NCR to 60% excess in Cagayan Valley (Region II). Peak deaths in provinces were even up to 2x or more above historical monthly deaths. Note that an excess deaths of 10% is a 1-in-200 year event. What more these magnitudes higher deaths? How was this not noticed, not comment on? I have listed both the numbers of excess deaths in 2021 AND the % of excess deaths in 2021 compared to 2020.
The pattern of excess deaths in 2021 across all regions is highly atypical, starting suddenly and showing specific peaks. These are not natural deaths! Something caused these deaths! Such death patterns cannot happen normally and must be due to some severe, and fatal assault against the population. This requires investigation for cause.
The Philippines Senate is currently conducting a Blue Ribbon Committee hearing on vaccine wastage. They have discussed possible causes for the wasteage, but have not yet included vaccine hesitancy in the discussion. Certainly vaccines have been readily available. However, it would seem that the vaccines were unwanted. Could the excess deaths, and adverse reactions be causal in the vaccine hesitancy? Shouldn’t an enquiry be extended to include investigation on reported adverse reactions and excess deaths?