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Philippines Vital Statistic Drop Jan-Aug 2022, as of 30 Sept 2022, Released 8th Dec 2022. Jan-June Data Appears Relatively Complete. Death Data Precisely Tracks 2019 Deaths. Birth Rates Are Dropping.
Death data exquisitely matches 2019 with less than 2.5% variance for March to June. Birth data shows a drop of 6, 13, and 12% for April-June comparing 2022 to 2021, nearly 30% compared to 2019.
PSA has a new data drop as of 8th December 2022. Data is set out in figures for easy review. Only the Jan to June data appears to be relatively complete. July to August should be disregarded as incomplete.
March to June death data nearly exactly matches the 2019 death data. Never mind that the large excess deaths from 2021 should have been compensated in 2022, had the cause of those excess deaths been removed.
Birth data appears similarly incomplete. The Jan to March slight rise in registered births has been followed by a drop and a flattening in registered births from April to June 2022. March 2022 data nearly exactly matched March 2021 data (22.6% drop since March 2019). April 2022 saw a drop in births of 6% compared to 2021 and 27.4% since April 2019 (1,216 fewer babies / day compared to 2019). May 2022 saw a drop in births of 13% compared to 2021 and 30% since May 2019 (1,359 fewer babies/day compared to 2019). June 2022 saw a drop in births of 12% compared to 2021 and 28.4% since June 2019 (1,265 fewer babies/day compared to 2019).
The regular birth pattern, rising in May, did not happen in 2022. Comparing Jan-June 2019 with 2022, there are just over 206,000 fewer births. If this trend continues, 2022 looks set for even lower overall births than 2021.
Comparing 2022 and 2021 data drops for vital statistics shows quite different patterns of data presentation. 2022 appears to show quite delayed data presentation. 2019 deaths and births are shown for reference on the 2022 charts.
Cause of Death (COD) data was also dropped using the same total deaths as presented in the vital statistics. PSA compare “complete” 2021 data for Jan to August with incomplete 2022 data for Jan to August (July & particularly August as already shown are very incomplete). It is not valid to compare complete and incomplete data, and no conclusions can be drawn based on raw data. Of course, all the of the 2022 incomplete raw data will be lower than the 2021 data!
Relative ranking for the first 3 causes of deaths was the same in both years, with Ischemic Heart Disease, Cerebrovascular Disease and Neoplasms being the leading causes of deaths. While raw data cannot be compared, the % share of overall deaths for various causes is relevant and can be compared. Notably neoplasms increased from 8.4% share of total deaths in 2021 to 10.2% in 2022, a 22% increase. Certain conditions originating in the perinatal period increased from 1.2% in 2021 to 1.5% in 2022, a 29% increase. By the same measure Congenital Malformations deformations and chromosomal abnormalities increased by 20%, and direct obstetric deaths by 29%. The % change in share is shown in the table below. Presented figures are only to 1 decimal place. All of this data will bear much closer scrutiny once it is more complete, sometime in 2023, or early 2024.
The death data looks amazingly precise; almost too good to be true, or complete. I would not have expected 2022 to mirror 2019 quite so precisely. Worldwide, all heavily Covid-19 vaccinated countries are showing excess deaths. Why is the Philippines different? It shouldn’t be. The birth data follows the international dropping trend, why aren’t the deaths increasing? Which begs questioning on the completeness of the data and/or the extent of delayed registrations. Is there obfuscation of data?
The birth data looks extremely worrying! How complete are the Jan-June data? 2022 registered births could well be lower by 30% or more compared to 2019. This is a gutting / cutting / sudden truncating of the population. Such rapid population changes will be massively destabilizing and threaten future development and prosperity. The just over 200,000 children so far missing in 2022 is equivalent to about 4,000 classrooms of children (50 children/ class) missing. On top of 145,239 fewer children in 2020, and 309,184 in 2021, this gives 660,481 missing children in the past 3 years (13,209 classrooms worth of children).
Recall the recent survey I reported on here showing fertility has dropped to 1.9, below replacement level of 2.1. Shouldn’t the fertility data together with the vital statistics data raise a screaming alarm signal?
PSA is entreated to deliver their critical public health information, complete and in a timely manner, with full respect to their committed transparency seal. If PSA find any aspect of their compiled data to be concerning, shouldn’t the alarm already be raised? If they are not alarmed, they should still explain this data in detail!
Is anyone out there? Is anyone listening? The future of the nation is now at stake!