Philippines Vital Statistics January-November 2025. Jan-Oct Marriages down 13.5%, Jan-Sept deaths down 1.7%, births down 4.6% vs. 2024.
2025 registered births are 25% lower than 2019 registered births; 1.5 million fewer babies born in the last 6 years than if 2019 birth rates had been maintained, and births continue to fall.
PSA released provisional 2025 data up to November 2026 compiled effective as of 31 March 2026 on 26 May. Provisional cause of death data for the same period was also released.
Registered marriages are down 13.5% between Jan and October 2025 vs. the same period in 2024. Overall, marriages are down 1/4 (25.4%) since 2019. Considering that the peak birth year in the Philippines was 2012, and that the population of young adults in the Philippines is still increasing, it must be asked why marriage is falling out of fashion. Is it simply too expensive and complicated to get married, or do young people choose not to partner and get married? Do they still have a child, or children?
The May 2026 data drop was the 7th data drop for 2025. Data will continue to be released up to July/August of 2026 if prior year releases are followed. Birth and death data now appears to be substantially complete up to September 2025.
55,798 deaths were added in this release, with most added for the period from September to November.
January to September deaths are currently 1.7% lower than deaths in the same period of 2024. January and March deaths are higher than 2024 same months, all other months remain lower. There never was any recovery from 2021’s 44% excess deaths, indicating that these deaths were due to external (non-natural) causes. That death counts have remained higher since 2022 indicates a population more susceptible to death in the post-pandemic post-COVID-19 injection years.
118,215 births were added in this data drop, with most additions for September to November.
Birth registrations appear substantially complete to September 2025; with births running 4.6% lower than the same period in 2024. 2025 births are lower than 2024 births in every month (Range -2.4% to -8.7%), excluding October and November which are clearly incomplete.
January to September births in 2025 are 25% lower than the same months in 2019.
As of September 2025, the Philippines now has 1,459,783 fewer babies than it would have had if 2019 birth rates had been maintained. Relative to 2012, the last peak birth year, the Philippines has had 2.3 million fewer registered births than it would have had were 2012 birth counts maintained.
Deaths remain a step higher than pre-2021 levels and births continue to decline.
Average monthly births and deaths are set out, with 2025 averaged using only Jan-Sept data. Monthly natural population growth (births - deaths) has fallen from 98,680 in 2015 to 87,782 in 2019, and 46,918 in 2025 provisional data. Annual population growth dropped from 1.18 million in 2015 to 0.5 million in 2025.
The Philippines exports well more than 1/2 million population annually via temporary OFW and permanent departures. The following data shows 11.2 million registered overseas workers as of 2024. Some of these will return, others will not.
Thus, the Philippines population is likely already declining.
Cause of Death Data
Cause of death data, as % of registered causes, show that cardiovascular disease is by far the leading cause of death, and is rising steadily year-on-year. 5/6 top causes of death (52.7% of all deaths) are lifestyle related, indicating a major public health catastrophe in the making.
National Capital Region
Examination of National Capital Region (NCR) births and deaths, which should be more complete than some more remote regions; deaths are 0.5% lower than 2024 levels.
2025 Jan-Sept registered live births are 4.9% lower than 2024 levels, 35% lower than 2019 levels (160,640 in 2019 dropped to 104,470 in 2025); 56,000 fewer babies in 1 year = 1,400 fewer classrooms (assume 40 kids / class) needed in the region by 2030.
The declining birth babies are about to hit school. Their loss is going to become increasingly obvious in coming years. All industries associated with babies, children, and child-rearing are facing stark and rapid business contractions.
Hi Sally,
Just a few weeks ago, Japan's demographic plunge led to the Finance Ministry's recent proposal to close a large percentage of private universities ... https://japannews.yomiuri.co.jp/politics/politics-government/20260501-325187/.
I can somewhat empathize because I resigned in protest (and disgust) from a tenured position at a private college. It was run so shoddily by self-promoting bureaucrats that I hesitate to say 'college' is a good translation for the Japanese 'daigakku' — but then again, standards appear to be falling worldwide, and don't think this is by chance alone.
Not that the public universities are any better, but the government has more control over the curriculum, and that is often not a good thing. I still remember former Prime Minister Abe's 2015 plan to have all universities eliminate their departments of the social sciences, humanities, and law. https://www.oregonlive.com/opinion/2015/09/japan_dumbs_down_its_universit.html
The above may be a preview of what is coming down the pipe for the Philippines, but thanks to the likes of Palantir, Davos, the WHO, and so on, I suspect even more drastic changes will intervene.
And for an even deeper dive, this just ('accidentally?') popped up in my YouTube feed ... beginning with Calhoun's 'Mouse Utopia' experiment, and finding parallels in human society ...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PjG5D30Cubw
Just my suspicion, but there seems to be a correlation between an increasingly sociopathic concentration of power of an increasingly small ruling class and intensifying competitions between an overproduction of elite over-production, and their tactic of reducing resource-draining children (Peter Turchin).
Despite it all, keep up the good fight.
Are people in the Philippines noticing they are having difficulty conceiving children? Has the drop in births been publicly discussed yet? And how is this concern managed by the government?
Thank you for your work, Sally.