PSA Gives 2nd Release of 2024 Data. While the Data is Still Too Incomplete to Determine Overall Trending, a Closer Look at Regional Data is Not Reassuring.
Deaths are close to 2022 levels and births are well below prior levels. Several months of additional data collection will still be needed to develop a clearer pattern of population trending.
PSA made their second provisional release of 2024 data on 28th November, sharing data from January to May 2024, as of 30 September 2024.
The data is still extremely incomplete considering that this should represent 9 months of data collection. The births and deaths are far lower than the equivalent Jan-May release of 2023 which was data compiled as of 31 July 2023 (only 7 months data compilation), and far lower than prior reference years of 2022 and 2023; the Philippines seems to have a serious problem with delayed registration of vital statistics data.
Here are the 2024 marriages from January to May 2024. January and February should be approaching substantial completion after 9 months of data collection (to 30 Sept). While the data will surely improve with collation of late registrations over time, it also looks like Filipinos are not in favor of getting married; a sure indicator of social change and tough times.
Overall births and deaths are far lower than prior years; attributable to late registrations, with actual trending not yet determinable.
On the premise that some of the more industrialized and central regions should have more complete data, I plotted 2022 to available 2024 births and deaths for NCR (National Capital Region) and 4 other regions.
To April 2024, the NCR data seems reasonably complete, though far from reassuring: March and April 2024 deaths already exceed 2022 and 2023 death levels, and births are far below the most recent lows of 2022 and 2023. Deaths and births will both still rise, particularly for later months. Most strollers in malls these days contain dogs, not babies, and these far lower birth data portend a worrying trend.
Similar but less pronounced patterns are observed for CAR, Region III, and Region VIA.
Region XIII is an example of a region with more incomplete data even for Jan to March and showing both births and deaths far below 2022 and 2023 levels.
Cause of Death Data Released
Cause of Death data for 2023 and 2024 cannot be compared yet as the raw numbers for 2024 are incomplete. Regardless, the 3 leading causes of death are still Ischemic Heart Disease (Heart Attacks), Neoplasms (Cancer) and Cerebrovascular disease (Strokes).
Cause of Death can be compared by relative % contribution to overall registered deaths for each year. All-cause mortality for the leading causes of deaths shows that ischemic heart disease/ heart attack deaths as % contributor to death registrations have risen sharply in 2024. Cancer deaths are also rising consistently. Pneumonia deaths are rising but are still far below pre-covid-era levels; could Covid-19 have taken out many persons susceptible to pneumonia?
The next release for Jan - June will be sometime in December. Update will be provided as soon as data is released.