PSA Released PH Provisional 2024 VS for Jan-Nov (deaths) and Jan-Dec (births) on 29 May 2025. Births Running Well Below 2023 Levels. Deaths Slightly Higher. 2024 Data Compilation Slower than in 2023.

What is up with the effective doubling of deaths from musculoskeletal system and connective tissue diseases in 2024 (0.38% to 0.82% of all deaths)?

The latest release of Philippines vital statistics shows that

1. Release of data in 2024 is far slower than it was in 2023 (maybe due to delays in submission from regional PSA offices to central PSA offices?).

2. Provisional registered deaths show trending slightly higher than 2023 levels.

3. Provisional registered births show a big drop in births.

4. Provisional registered marriages show dropping marriages.

5. National Capital Region (presumed to be among the most complete data) confirms the above trending showing slightly rising deaths and a large fall in births.

Overall 2024 Marriage Data now covering provisional data from January to December shows a 14% drop in marriages to June 2024 vs. the same period in 2023. The trending of more than half of babies being born outside wedlock will continue.

Overall 2024 Death Data, now covering provisional data from January to November, shows a slight increase in deaths for Jan-June 2024 of +0.6%. This will certainly rise as late registrations continue to be compiled.

Overall Birth Data, now covering provisional data from January to December, shows a drop of 14.1% up to September 2024 vs. September 2023. While births will certainly improve with late registrations, they are likely to remain well below all prior levels. Average 2024 monthly losses vs. 2023 up to September are -13.9% (range -7.1% to -22.2%).

Philippines birth and death trending over time. That flattening of births in 2024 is highly concerning.

Here showing the 2024 delays in registration compared to the equivalent periods in 2023. Death data to May is similar to 2023 levels but thereafter apparently drops off. This drop is likely due to late registrations not a real drop in deaths: delays in registrations can mask actual trending and year-on-year changes.

The 2024 drop in births are holding steady. This plot presents monthly 2024 releases and compares them against 2023 same period, and 2023 overall.

2024 death data will ultimately be similar to 2023 levels if trending holds.

National Capital Region (NCR) being the central region of PH and home to the central PSA should have the most complete vital statistics data of any region. Marriages, Births, and Deaths are set out. Marriages are down by 7.6% from January to October.

2024 births are down by 9.1% from January to October vs. 2023, and 26.5% since that same period in 2019.

2024 deaths are up by 3.1% up to August vs, 2023. Registration of deaths appears slower / more delayed that registration of births.

By year for NCR.

Cause of Death Data was also released. Raw numbers are not comparable as the 2024 count is far lower than the 2023 count for the same period (498K vs 636K). However, % contribution to deaths can be compared. There is no change in the leading causes of death since last release. Heart disease and cancer rates are rising vs 2023; other top 6 causes have dropping contributions to COD.

One interesting observation is the big increase in deaths from musculoskeletal and connective tissue disease, a 69% increase in raw death counts numbers (2,400 rose to 4,076), a more than 116% increase as contribution to annual cause of death. Raw counts of arthropod viral fevers and hemorrhagic fevers also rose (1,039 to 1,234), a 51.5% increase in contribution to 2024 deaths.

Next data releases will start compiling full year 2024 data. 2025 data will likely not start releasing until 4th quarter of 2025.

I hope readers note the alarming findings on dropping births are bring it to attention of local public figures. When I raised these findings with a friend I hadn’t seen for a while, she had no idea, thought PH has a very high birth rate, and was overpopulated; she was shocked when I explained. People need to know!

I will keep readers updated.