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Questioning Population Vital Statistics
Why has the data release slowed to a trickle? In 2021 data was released monthly. Currently data release is at least 4 to 5 months behind schedule and is clearly very incomplete!
All-cause mortality data is essential in the evaluation of population health. It is not skewed by interpretations, it is simply raw cold data, the number of people dead, giving indication on whether there are any factors affecting population health and survival. Early identification of any death signal is essential to enable timely actions to minimize cause. Public health has failed abysmally in timely release of and action over population data over the past 2 1/2 years! I present evidence for this in the Philippines.
Acute Deaths Following Covid-19 Vaccination
We know from the VAERS system that there is a strong temporal relationship with reported deaths in the first few days and weeks following vaccination. These early vaccine caused deaths should be roughly proportionate to the number of doses of vaccines given.
Recent Research Is Raising the Alarms on Delayed Excess Deaths Tied in with Covid-19 Vaccination
Where deaths occur months after an intervention, it can be challenging to tie that intervention directly in with those deaths. Population data is useful to correlate timing of delivery of mass vaccination programs to different population subsets, with subsequent changes in overall death rates in those same population subsets. Changes in rates of death due to various causes of death that have been identified as linked adverse reactions may also be useful.
Dr. Alexander has just presented data supporting US Excess Mortality temporally explained by a combination of lockdowns and Covid-19 Vaccination.
He has previously discussed that while there is a spike of deaths in the immediate days and weeks following vaccination, there is a second peak in deaths at about 6 months.
Steve Kirsch shared data supporting a second wave of deaths, temporally linking them with vaccination, peaking at 5 months post dosing.
Dr. Alexander’s recent article further shows UK Government data revealing mass excess deaths in the UK in fully vaccinated people between 1 January 2021, and 31 May 2022. Death rates of 1 person out of every 73 vaccinated!
If that were to apply in the Philippines, which started vaccination about 3 months later than the UK, and has 72,574,454 fully vaccinated persons as of 1 September 2022, we could expect close to 1,000,000 vaccine related deaths to have already occurred! I suspect that the Philippines death outcomes would be worse due to minimal access to advanced medical care for most persons; conditions that may be treatable may simply prove fatal before any treatment can be accessed or afforded!
Excess Deaths in the Philippines
Aside from my personal experience of seeing so very many deaths within my social circles, unprecedented in my half century on earth, the work by Kirsch, Alexander, and others all add to my conviction that the Philippines Vital Statistics on deaths later than September 2021 simply cannot be right and there must be mass under capture and underreporting of deaths.
Following my, and others’ local reporting on the extreme excess deaths in the 3rd quarter of 2021, by the end of 2021 the release of data inexplicably slowed to a mere trickle! Why would this be? If all-cause mortality data were possibly detrimental to public confidence in the much touted safe and effective and necessary for everyone Covid-19 vaccination program, it would make sense that data counterproductive to that narrative might be quashed!
Vaccine rollout started in Philippines in March 2021. By the end of September 18.76% of the population had completed initial protocol.
The Philippines had notable excess deaths above forecast from March 2021 through to the end of the year. The peak excess deaths were in September 2021, with death rates more than double expected levels.
By end of December 2021 43.58% of the population had completed initial vaccination protocols; an additional 24.8% of the population vaccinated between 1 Oct to 31 Dec 2021, but there were fewer deaths than at the lower population vaccination rates.
Excess deaths directly related to acute reactions to the Covid-19 vaccine rollout are expected. That was apparent in the data prior to October 2021, where parallel movement between the cumulative % of the population vaccinated and excess deaths could be observed.
If the observations of Dr. Alexander and Mr. Kirsch are added, accelerating deaths should be expected within 5 to 6 months after the start of rollout as the second wave of deaths adds to the initial acute reactions. A second wave of deaths would certainly help to explain the massive death spike in September, 6 months after the start of rollout!
The unbelievable data!
Dosing and excess deaths run in parallel up to September. Excess deaths for October through to December plummet, though they are still excess, even as vaccination uptake is massively ramped up.
2022 data is reported separately from 2021 data. There are excess deaths in January 2022. There is insufficient data available to make any assessment later than January 2022.
If we consider the Alexander and Kirsch hypotheses of escalating vaccine sequelae deaths at 5 to 6 months; deaths by the end of 2021 and into 2022 should be accelerating not dropping! The data stops making sense after September 2021!
The only possible new causative factor (the vaccination, that started officially in March 2021) continued full steam ahead, and accelerated, but the deaths dropped off? There has got to be (a lot of) data missing!
Election Season Explains Delayed Data Early in 2022. Is There Still Any Explanation?
2021 vital statistics data released on 13 August 2022 report vital statistics registered as of March 2022 (FOI response)! Early 2022 was peak Philippines election season; everyone was caught up in mass election fever. Delayed data registration of data and data transmission was absolutely expected during this period! Shouldn’t that delayed data have been caught up in June and July, when the election was over?
Perhaps PSA need a budget increase, approval to hire more staff? They are a professional agency! They must have a good reason for late data release!
How Many People Started but Didn’t Complete Vaccination Protocols?
How many people who took a first dose, did not go back for a second? Assuming a 2-month gap between first and second doses, the share of people with at least one dose should have an equivalent % vaccinated as the complete initial protocol 2 months later.
Using data from OWID I find, 66.11% of the population had completed at least 1st dose as of 16 June 2022, whereas 63.45% completed the initial (full) protocol by 18 August 2022, 2 months later. This gives a 2.16% gap between people who got a first dose, but never went back for a second dose on schedule! Why could that have happened? They were willing for the first dose?
Data mis-entry aside, I can suggest only 2 possible main reasons for consideration.
1) They had a such a severe reaction that they could not take a second dose, or
2) They died and were no longer present to take a second dose!
2.66% of the Philippines roughly estimated population of 110 million represents about 2.93 million people who did not go back to complete dosing! In the middle of a population wide experiment, studying the group that consented, but did not complete the experiment should be vital information.
We are reminded that Dr Alexander’s death rate of 1 in 73 vaccinated persons translates to roughly a million possible deaths here. That makes knowing the actual reasons and outcomes for the vaccine program dropout way more critical! Are these people still ok?
Call for Transparent Release of Information and Detailed Investigation
Admirably, the Philippines Government and her agencies have committed to data transparency through the Philippines Transparency Seal.
Senators, population health experts, legal experts, PAO, concerned citizens, please call for timely release of full data! Please call for a Senate enquiry to investigate outcomes! Please call for full risk-benefit analysis.
Without data there are only rumors, fear and speculation! Please prove that there is nothing to be concerned about via data transparency! However, if there is a concern, the Filipino people need action now!