Region IV-B Mimaropa: The 2021 Excess Deaths Started Later Than In Luzon. Both Covid-19 and Excess Deaths Started In April Built Slowly And Then Soared Through To September.

92% of the 5,439 excess deaths in 2021 in this region occurred between May and October. Deaths in this period were 60.1% above Forecast Levels. The tragedy of excess death is seen in every province!

Region IV-B is the MIMAROPA Region. It covers the 5 provinces of Marinduque, Occidental Mindoro, Oriental Mindoro, Palawan, and Romblon, as well as 1 highly urbanized city Puerto Princesa. In the 2020 Census it had a population of 3,228,558 or 2.96% of the entire population of the Philippines. This region is well known for tourism and has many spectacular tourism destinations.

All death data presented here is from the Philippines Statistics Authority (PSA) Vital Statistics, and all Covid-19 death data is extracted from the Philippines Department of Health, latest data at 23 July 2022. Note that the October, November and December 2021 vital statistics data from PSA are still incomplete. Deaths for 2021 will likely be (considerably) higher than that presented here.

I have calculated Forecast Mortality for 2020 and 2021 using the excel forecast tool with input 5 years historical death data from 2015 to 2019. The output is a forecast mortality and a confidence upper and lower bounds. This forecast mortality is then compared against actual deaths for the overall region and it’s provinces to determine excess deaths for 2021.

Similar to most other non-highly urbanized areas Mimaropa had no excess deaths in 2020, with 1,251 fewer deaths than the forecast. Covid-19 deaths were also low in 2020.

In 2021 there were 5,439 excess deaths, which is 32% higher than the forecast deaths for that year. There were 1,070 deaths attributed to Covid-19 in 2021. Covid-19 cannot explain the excess deaths which were 5.1x higher than the Covid-19 attributed deaths. Covid-19 deaths, being typically deaths of people with multiple severe life limiting comorbidities, would be expected to be part of the normal annual deaths, not the excess deaths. Other explanation should be sought for the excess deaths!

The overall patterns of excess deaths for the Region IV-B, and the Covid-19 Deaths are presented. There was a small rise of 9% of excess deaths in April 2021 (compared to April 2019). Every month thereafter saw a rise in excess deaths. Covid-19 deaths also escalated in April 2021.

Forecast deaths for both a 12 month period and just covering the period from May to October is presented for comparison. 92% of 2021 Excess Deaths occurred from May to October! This is 60% above the expected deaths levels.

Monthly patterns of deaths and forecasts are provided for each province and the industrialized city of Puerto Princesa. Note that the excess deaths start and accelerate at different times in different provinces. Unlike Manila the death patterns are not biphasic. There is a slow build, a stabilization, then a soaring in September. Puerto Princesa has a zigzagging pattern of excess deaths. These are highly atypical patterns, and must be due to external forces.

These excess deaths are deaths that should not have occurred under normal circumstances. These are deaths of people who should have lived longer were it not for outside forces. The role of the Covid-19 vaccine rollout in these deaths, and in the continuation of the deaths at the end of 2021 and into 2022 that are no longer being reported from PSA, needs to be determined.

Please demand answers from your governors, from your provincial health officers. Please share this data! Please judge for yourself if there was any other possible event, ongoing from 2nd quarter of 2021 that could possibly explain this devastating unprecedented loss of life!