The Philippines is a World Leader In Excess Deaths in 2021! Overall 43.2% Excess Deaths (721 Excess Deaths per day)! The by-Region Excess Deaths Range from 24.9% to 60.4%.

There were no excess infant deaths, deaths increased by age with the elderly most affected. Maternal Mortality Increased in 2020 and 2021. Death outcomes / excess deaths varied by region.

The PSA has released the 2021 Official Death Vital Statistics Report on 24th February 2023. The total deaths reported are the still the same as those released last August 2022, which were for death registrations received as of 31 March 2022 (Source: FOI request). Thus, this report does not include late death registrations. I do not expect that the 2021 data would be complete by 31 of March 2022. It takes at least 3 to 4 months for vital statistics data to be substantially complete, thereafter late registrations still trickle in. That may have taken even longer in early 2022, when many persons in government were engaged in preparing for the mid-2022 national election.

There were 879,429 registered deaths in the Philippines in 2021. From OWID, historically, deaths captured by registration are about 92% of total deaths. Of the deaths 37.2% occurred in health facilities, 68.6% occurred at home, and 0.7% occurred in other locations / was not stated.

Philippines, a World-Leader in 2021 Excess Deaths

The death data is still the same as I have previously presented with 42.3% excess deaths in 2021 compared to 2020. Excess deaths rose substantially from March 2021 and peaked in September 2021 at 2.2x typical levels. There were 2,403 deaths/day in 2021 compared to 1,682 deaths/day in 2020; an average daily excess deaths of 721 people who died but had not been expected to die! During the peak death period in September 2021, 3,992 people died each day compared to the 1,798 who died each day in 2020; that is 2,194 daily excess and unexpected deaths! These excess deaths could not be explained by Covid-19 deaths. Further, Covid-19 infections typically took the ill and fragile who were expected to part of the usual deaths, not excess deaths (as observed in 2020 which had not excess deaths). How did no-one notice?

As far as I can determine, the Philippines is among the world leaders in 2021 excess deaths! 43.25% excess deaths!

10% excess deaths are a 1 in 200 year event? This is more than 4x higher. Maybe this sort of excess is not even possible outside of catastrophic and massive natural disaster, or war! Single digit % point year on year changes are normal (mean variation between 2000 and 2020 was 2%). 43.2% is catastrophic, and a devastating loss for families, communities, and the nation!

What an ignominious claim to fame! There has not been any discussion or even comment from local authorities on the causes, or consequences of such a large excess deaths.

2021 Deaths by Age Group

Provided below are the by age-group deaths for 2021. In 2021, only children 9 years and younger had death rates lower than 2019 levels. Thereafter, 2021 death rates were higher than 2019, and increased with age.

Persons aged 75 and older had excess rates more than 50% above 2020 levels. The very old, 85 and above had excess death in 62.4% above 2020 levels. 2020 was also a pandemic year, a lockdown year, a control year for 2021, but there were no elevated deaths in that year. Elevated deaths started in 2021, and accelerated from March onwards! This death acceleration was concurrent with the Covid-19 vaccine rollout which also officially started on 1 March 2021. It would appear that the vaccines did not protect the elderly; could they have killed the elderly? If it were not the vaccines, what else could have caused the mass excess deaths? Nothing else changed compared to 2020! This question deserves an answer! Urgently!

Infant Mortality

Sadly Philippines has considerably infant mortality. In 2020 infant deaths were lower than typical, as shown in comparison to 2019 data (2019 looks to have been a bad year for Filipino infants). Could the improved infant outcomes in 2020 and 2021 be due to lockdowns and lack of access to well-child visits (reduction in nosocomial / routine vaccine induced deaths)? There were also no excess deaths in infants < 1 yo in 2021 compared to 2019, the last normal pre-pandemic year, across all regions except BARMM, where infant deaths rose from 2019 to 2021.

Deaths by Region

Assuming that all factors are equal; equal health, equal treatment of health conditions, deaths would be expected to be fairly evenly distributed across regions relative to population. That is not the case. Excess deaths by regions ranges from 34.2% to 60.4%. Many regions did worse than the 42.3% excess deaths: Region II - Cagayan (+60.4% Excess Deaths), BARMM (+58.3%), Region III Central Luzon (+57.7%), etc. as shown in the following table. Devastating losses to communities of persons who were not expected to die. How did their medical health officers, their governors fail to notice.

When % of excess deaths are plotted against % population of each region, it can clearly be seen that some regions fared worse than others. Regions where the red line is above the bar are regions where death rates were higher than would have been expected based on their population.

Maternal Mortality

Maternal mortality (death of pregnant women), progressively deteriorated in both 2020 and 2021, with about 500 excess maternal deaths in 2020 and an additional 500 excess maternal deaths in 2021. Even more concerning is the variation across regions. In 2021 pregnant women had far worse outcomes in some regions than others (variation from -11% deaths in Region III to +116% in Region II Cagayan Valley). Access to medical care was absolutely affected during lockdowns. Pandemic measures evidently have resulted in the loss of around 1,500 pregnant women in 2020 and 2021, compared to 2019.

2021 Cause of Death Data

Top 10 causes of death (COD) are set out. In 2020 Covid-19 deaths with virus not identified (ie. covid-19 as cause of death was assumed) was in the top 10 COD (However, Covid-19 with virus identified was not in the top 10 causes of death). In 2021, both Covid-19 Virus identified and Covid-19 virus not-identified were in the top 10 causes of death. That there was bias in the declaration of Covid-19 deaths is accepted, but we can only use the data as presented. Aside from Covid-19, from 2020 to 2021, the most notable large increases in COD came from Hypertensive Diseases (+53.3%), Ischemic Heart Disease (+48%), Diabetes (+39.5%), and Cerebrovascular diseases (+33.4%). Increases in all of these have been attributed to Covid-19 Vaccine side effects, the magnitude of which in the Philippines’ case is undefined. Other causes of death increased by 38.3%.

2021 Vital Statistics Data is Not Complete

I am disappointed (though not surprised) that the 2021 data was not updated after the August 2022 release, which presented 2021 data as of March 2022 (confirmed via FOI).

Supposedly the 1 year delay in issue of each year’s final vital statistics after the end of each year is done to enable as complete capture of data. However, the failure to update 2021 vital statistics data later than 31 March 2022, makes the completeness of the provided data suspect. I am still hopeful that PSA will update / finalize data in due course.

Meanwhile, the overall excess death of 43.2% with variation by region ranging from 24.9% to 60.4% needs urgent investigation! A senate inquiry? The Filipino people deserve better!