Will the Philippines hit neutral population growth within 2025? Excel forecast predicts that the Philippines could be losing 1 million population a year by 2030!

While this is theoretical it should be raising blaring alarms on population trending.

Worldometer puts the Philippines current population at 117.3 million.

This is higher than PSA population estimates. 2020 is the last year for which the Philippines Statistics Authority has population census data when the population as of 01 May 2020 was 109,035,343. This had increased by 8,053,906 persons since the prior 2015 census which pegged the population at 100.98 million.

Using vital statistics data from Philippines statistics authority, I can calculate the probable population as of the end of 2022. I.e. population = prior census count + registered births - registered deaths. This comes to 112.27 million. There are still late registered births and deaths to be included in the 2021 and 2022 data. However, the actual population will probably be within half a million of this figure, which is around 3 million short of the worldometer figure. We should also note that the increase for 2023 will almost certainly be far lower than the Worldometer’s predicted 1.8 million.

From the PSA’s published vital statistics, the current annual population increases are already well less than 1 million. Annual population increases (the green box) using PSA final (2015-2020) and provisional data (2021 & 2022), to date is shown.

Worldometer forecasts that the Philippines population will hit 157.9 million by 2050.

OWID projects that the Philippines population will stabilize and then start dropping by 2080 when projected deaths exceed projected births. I find it curious how their actual data ends in 2021 and is thereafter modelled predictions, presented as if 2020 and 2021 never happened. Further, their shown annual birth rates are far higher than those reported by PSA, and also do not reflect the dropping birth rates from 2019 to 2022.

The international (UN) and the local (PSA) data clearly do not match; while the OWID figure shows Philippines birthrates peaking in 2031, Philippines birth rates already peaked in 2012 at 1.79 million and have been on a downward trend ever since. Even death rates shown by UN are higher than those registered by PSA. Perhaps the UN considers a large underreporting factor?

I used excel forecast with the current 5-year registered deaths data from 2018 to 2022. If the abnormal trending of the past 4 years continues, population at worst could hit no net increase this year, and at best by 2027. While these projections are theoretical, they should raise concerns that the observed patterns are alarming!

Plotted in the same format as the previous population change chart. This shows that after peaking at 112.67 million in 2025, the population will start decreasing. By 2030, the Philippines could be losing one million population a year!

Certainly, depopulation could well be in full swing before the end of this decade! This represents a national emergency! Catastrophic for development and security!