Australian All-Cause Mortality up by 22% in January 2022

In the 49 weeks from 7 February 2021 to 9 January 2022 deaths were 6.7% above baseline (10,212 excess). In the 3 week reporting period 16, 23, 30 Jan 2022 deaths were 26% above baseline (2,299 excess)

The Australian Bureau of Statistics records all cause mortality with 7 day reporting intervals. The latest data was released on 28th April 2022 and covers registered deaths from the period from 1 February 2021 to 30 Jan 2022.

Baseline (in blue) gives an indication of expected range of deaths, though it does not account changes in population size. The baseline comparison data includes deaths from 2015 to 2019. 2020 is excluded as baseline because deaths in 2020 were considerably lower than expected.

Unlike previous reports, the latest report includes both doctor and coroner certified deaths, though it notes that the coroner certified deaths take longer to be reported and may still be incomplete.

The summary reports a 22% increase in deaths above baseline in January 2022. 15,805 deaths occurred by January 31, that were registered by 31st of March. 13,978 of these were doctor certified and 1,827 were coroner referred.

I plotted the % increase in death above baseline for this data period. From the last quarter of 2021, deaths were showing upward trending. Above baseline deaths first rose to 14% for the week ending 26th December (highest increase from baseline for 2021), and then 25% on 16th January, 29% on 23rd January, and 26% on 30th January 2022.

In the 49 weeks between 1 February 2021 and 9th January 2022 there were 162,147 registered deaths (average of 3,309/week), with 10,212 (average 208 per week) of these being above the expected baseline. For the 3 weeks from 10 to 30 January 2022 there were 11,075 registered deaths (average of 3,691/week) with 2,299 (average 766/week) of these being above the expected baseline.

With respect to cause of death, the most common cause in January 2022 was cancer (+4.1% vs. January 2021), followed by Covid-19. Other causes of death showing increases in January 2022 vs. January 2021 were Ischemic Heart Disease (+13.6%), diabetes (+42.5%), and dementia (+13.6%). Rates of deaths from cerebrovascular diseases and respiratory diseases were reported as comparable to 2021.

With this report the age-standardized death rate (SDR) for January 2022 rose to 44.9 per 100,000 people. This was higher than the baseline average of 40.8.

The report claims that the increase in deaths coincided with the increase in Covid-19 infections associated with the Delta and Omicron Waves of the Pandemic.

Covid-19 cases between 1 Feb 21 and 9 Jan 22 were 1,016,473 with 1,480 attributed deaths. Covid-19 cases between 10 and 30 Jan 2022 were 1,561,951 with 1,373 attributed deaths (Source: OWID). The covid-19 attributed deaths are lower than the deaths above baseline (by 926). Thus, covid-19 deaths alone cannot explain the higher than usual deaths (even if we assume those persons had no severe comorbidities or age to confound death causes).

This sudden and apparently escalating increase in registered deaths is highly concerning and certainly well beyond all historical trends. Close study and identification of cause is clearly warranted.