Case Study: Region IV-A Calabarzon. Peak Deaths in September 2021 were 2 to 3.4x Higher Than in 2019! Deaths Show Progressive Escalations; 66% Above Forecast Between March and September!

Normal deaths pattern in early 2021. Followed by increasing deaths as the year progresses up to September 2021.

Region IV-A is CALABARZON, which occupies occupying the central section of Luzon. It covers 5 provinces; Batangas, Cavite, Laguna, Quezon, and Rizal, as well as 1 highly urbanized city which is the City of Lucena in Quezon. In the 2020 Census the population was 16,195,042, or 14.85% of the entire population of the Philippines.

For this analysis I have provided overall data for Region IV-A, as well as a breakdown by province; Lucena City was treated separately, even though it is a city in Quezon Province, to match the government’s presentation and breakdown of data. All deaths in 2020 and 2021 were referenced against forecast (excel forecast) expected deaths based on historical vital statistics data from 2015 to 2019. All vital statistics were taken from Philippines Statistics Authority (psa.gov.ph) public domain data. All Covid-19 death data is taken from the Philippines Department of Health (DOH) Covid-19 Tracker (last data release on 23 July 2022).

Region IV-A did show an excess deaths of 1,436 over the forecast 2020 deaths. This is an excess of 1.5%. The variability in excess deaths in 2020 ranged from -12.5% in Lucena City to 4.4% in Cavite Province. Region IV-A is industrialized and the effects of strict lockdowns in 2020 with increased poverty, hunger, despair, lack of exercise, vitamin D, and access to medical care would have contributed to these deaths.

In 2021 there were 30,262 excess deaths, an increase of 40.9% above forecast levels. However, these excess deaths occurred between March and September 2021: there was a 66% increase in deaths over forecast deaths between March and September 2021. Deaths in every province in September 2021 were 2 or more times greater than typical deaths, compared against September 2019. Excess deaths were worsening over time.

The excess deaths cannot be explained by Covid-19 deaths. The excess deaths were 9.1x higher than the death attributed to Covid-19. Covid-19 is known to be fatal to people with multiple severe comorbidities who have limited lifespan; thus these people are usually within expected typical deaths, and do not contribute to excess deaths. Looking just at the last available substantially complete data which is September; there were a total of 20,115 registered deaths, 14.2x higher than the reported 856 Covid-19 Deaths.

All cause deaths in every province showed two peaks; the first in the 2nd quarter, and a much higher peak in the 3rd quarter. The vast majority of the excess deaths occurred in 3rd quarter of 2021, after the covid-19 vaccines were rolled out to the population.

Overall deaths for the IV-A are set out in the first two figures, then followed by province data.

September deaths in Batanagas were 3.4x higher than deaths in September 2019. That is 4,978 deaths, 3,511 MORE DEATHS than the 1,467 deaths in 2019! How could that not have been noticed!

Laguna’s deaths did not drop from May to June relative to historical trends, and then soared in August and September.

This shows the data for Quezon and it’s industrialized city Lucena. Both show similar patterns of deaths, with the city showing more variability as is expected for a smaller population. Quezon and Lucena both had relatively normal deaths from January to March. Excess deaths started in April 2021. The start of the vaccine rollout in this province was likely delayed by a month.

Rizal shows excess deaths started in March, peaked in April and then dropped somewhat in June and July before soaring in August and September.

Readers, every province that I have looked at has similar data. I will continue to present the by province data over the next 2 weeks because it is important to personalize what has been happening! This data also needs to be shared with each Province’ Governors and Barangay Captains, Church Leaders, Health Officials, and concerned citizens.

There is no explanation for these excess deaths except the vaccines. The death data for the last quarter of 2021 will surely be even worse than presented here because the uptake of vaccines by the end of September was only at about 18.8%, whereas it was at 43.6% by the end of December.

Full vital statistics for 2021 must be released! Each Governor should critically assess their own vital statistics from their Provincial Health Officer!