Evaluation of Hong Kong C-19 Vaccination and Vital Statistics. Pharmacovigilance Reporting Concluded Unequivocable Safety and Efficacy of the Covid-19 Vaccines, with 21 Million Doses Administered.

Every peak in vaccine booster doses (3-7) was accompanied by a same month spike in deaths. Correlation does not equal causation, unless there is no other possible explanation. Investigation is needed!

Having a long working history with and many friends in Hong Kong, I have wanted to research and write about Hong Kong’s population outcomes over the pandemic years but have been challenged in finding monthly vital statistics data. Finally, after emailing the HK Government Statistics Department (kudos for a rapid and professional response), I received guidance on where to find data to prepare a monthly breakdown of deaths and births. With sufficient data to put together a picture of what happened in Hong Kong over the pandemic years and to illustrate an alarming trending of death spikes with vaccine rollouts, I present this report. I pray it can reach the right hands to trigger an investigation into Covid-19 pandemic measures and outcomes.

Covid-19 Vaccination in Hong Kong

Two products were used. Hong Kong started its Covid-19 vaccination on 26 February 2021 with the CoronaVac (Sinovac - whole inactivated virus) vaccine. Administration of Comirnaty (BioNTech - mRNA product) vaccine started on 10 March 2021. Uptake has been very high. To date, 93% of its population of about 7.35 million are double dosed and 80% have received at least a 3rd dose (1st booster). CoronaVac will be phased out by the end of September 2024, after which only the mRNA product Comirnaty will be available.

Population dosing continues: in the week from 19-25 August 2024, 2,276 doses were administered, mostly 4th, 5th, and 6th doses, though with a small number of 1st doses and second doses; infants aging into dosing eligibility at 6 months?

Hong Kong Pharmacovigilance

The Hong Kong Government had a pharmacovigilance system in place, which monitored for outcomes of concern during the Covid-19 vaccines administration. The final report covered the period from vaccine rollout up to 23 December 2023. I found the 37-page report to be a disturbing read, as it became clear that adverse events were minimized, particularly given the 14-days post injection time limit for consideration of presentation of an adverse event.

Reports of AEFI were received at a rates of at 0.04% or 38.2/100,000 doses for the 8,927,000 doses of CoronaVac, and at 0.04% or 39.5/100,000 doses for the 11,989,600 doses of Comirnaty. Reports of adverse reactions were reported to have become fewer over time, which the report mentioned was due to doctors learning how to manage side effects / becoming used to normal reactions.

Causality assessment was conducted by the Expert Committee and Department of Health on 5,000 events. Ultimately, they found that only 1,157 of the assessed events were vaccine linked, and with no vaccine quality defects or immunization error reactions identified.

The specific reports found few serious linked reactions:

• Of the 53 reports of suspected anaphylaxis received; 22 were accepted as being true anaphylaxis; 5 were accepted as vaccine linked, and 17 were judged to be unrelated

• Of the 689 reports of suspected Bell’s palsy received; 669 were accepted as being true cases; 627 were accepted as vaccine linked, 16 judged indeterminate, and 14 considered unassociated.

• Of the 120 reports of death within 14 days¹ from vaccination for persons aged between 34 and 101 years of age, none were assessed as causally related.

• Of the 26 reports of suspected Guillain-Barre Syndrome: 21 were accepted as true cases, 11 were judged as indeterminate, and 7 assessed as unrelated.

• Of the 241 reports of myo- or pericarditis with vaccination received within 14 days of onset; 225 cases were accepted as true cases. 148 were judged as being causally associated, 29 indeterminate, and 38 as not associated.

• of the 37 reports of suspected thrombocytopenia; 29 were accepted as true cases, 6 were judged as indeterminate, and 22 as not associated.

The report concluded by thanking all parties involved, and stated that the collected data demonstrated the safety, efficacy, and quality of the Covid-19 vaccines used in Hong Kong.

The Hong Kong authorities have full confidence in the Covid-19 vaccines, and these products are now considered as regular vaccines, for population administration, for all persons aged 6 months and older.

Hong Kong Vital Statistics

The following section provides a summary of historical and current vital statistics. Please draw your conclusion on whether there are any atypical trending requiring further intensive and impartial investigation.

All data presented is from the Hong Kong statistics department and extracted from published public domain reports.

Hong Kong has an aging population. This is reflected in rising deaths and falling births over time. Annual births and deaths from 1971 to 2023 are plotted. Deaths show a steady rise. However, 2022 shows a massive 24% increase in deaths. There is some recovery in 2023, but not to prior levels.

Births show a fascinating trending, demonstrating clearly the impacts of economic and political issues / national stability and security on peoples willingness to have babies. Hong Kong’s largely Chinese population also consider that there are favorable years for having children, with dragon years being most favored. Many young people leave Hong Kong looking for opportunities abroad (United Kingdom, Canada, Australia and New Zealand are favored destinations). The average annual change in births from 1971 to 2021 was -1.2%, with a range of -37.7% to + 14.9%.

A breakdown of births by month, with the historical trending from 2015 shown for contrast, is provided. From March 2020 through to June 2022 there are clearly abnormal birth patterns; well outside the typical month-to-month variations. I don’t know how to explain these patterns, as births reflect conception 10 months earlier.

Hong Kong’s very high cesarian rates (well over 40%) cannot explain the sudden drop in births, if babies are electively delivered early due to a favored birth date in any month resulting in higher births in that month, the following month should have had lower births; yet the drop in births came first followed by a peak in the following month. The abnormal patterning precedes the covid-19 vaccine rollout, though there is a very big drop in February-March 2022, which happens to match the Covid-19 booster dosing.

There is no considerable increase in Hong Kong’s very low maternal and infant mortality rates over this period. I am not able to find data on still birth or pregnancy loss rates to determine if this may have been a factor.

Hong Kong’s Population is at Risk of Collapse

Hong Kong is in population decline; deaths have been higher than births since 2020.

Life expectancy has dropped.

Only migration has contributed to slight population growth.

Evaluation of Monthly Vital Statistics: Deaths

Hong Kong's monthly deaths show little notable change from prior trending in the first 2 years of the pandemic. This changed in March of 2022 when deaths spiked 2.13x higher than February 2022, and 87% higher than March 2021.

Expected vs. Actual Deaths Over the Covid-19 Pandemic Years

To assess how many excess deaths occurred in Hong Kong, I used excel forecast and annual mortality data from 2010 to 2019 to arrived at expected deaths and a range. Deaths in 2020 and 2021 were at the top of the forecast range for expected deaths, and deaths in 2022 and 2023 are well outside the expected range.

The 2022 spike in deaths was blamed on Covid-19. Set out below are leading Causes of Death showing breakdown for deaths officially recorded as due to Covid-19 Infection from 2020 to 2023. #2023 data is still provisional.

Combining forecast deaths for 2020 to 2023 (200,846), and Covid-19 deaths (12,080), all very conservatively assumed to be excess², there are still 7,596 other excess deaths that cannot be explained.

Covid-19 Vaccines and Death Trending in Hong Kong from 2021 to 2024

Overall monthly doses of Covid-19 Vaccines were plotted against monthly deaths to see if there were any apparent patterns. The initial dosing, starting in February of 2021 and peaking from June to September, does not seem clearly related with any death spike. There was a rise in deaths in November and December of 2021, but these were still within prior ranges. However, the March 2022 death spike, and subsequent spikes seem somehow correlated with booster dosing.

Separate plots of the monthly primary (2) doses, and subsequent booster dosing (up to 5) against monthly deaths were prepared. If I didn’t know from the Pharmacovigilance report that the vaccines were totally safe and effective and had no deaths linked, I would suspect that there is a link between booster dosing and rises in deaths!

The following plots show both vaccine type and dose to give a clearer presentation, and to elucidate impacts of the smaller numbers of later doses. This data presentation shows that (at least the first rollout of) the primary series doesn’t appear to be associated with obvious change in mortality patterns. However, every subsequent peak in booster dosing (presently from 3 to 7) was associated with a same month new rise in deaths.

Did the Covid-19 Vaccines Kill Recipients?

Demographic data cannot prove causality, that has to be done by more intensive study. Regardless, this data presentation looks damning indeed! Every spike in doses is matched by a spike in death! Can that be explained by some other factor?

I suggest that the Covid-19 vaccination pharmacovigilance was designed to avoid detecting any associate between vaccination rollout and deaths, similar in many nations.

I pray that this concerned global citizen investigation and data presentation can be provided to relevant Hong Kong government officials to trigger an independent investigation into the Covid-19 pandemic response and outcomes. That is also triggers a revision in covid-19 vaccination recommendations, most especially for babies, children, and young people who are not at risk from Covid-19 infections, but may be at grave risk from these products.

1. Death cases with vaccination history of more than 14 days are outside the reporting criteria for AEFI.

2. Covid-19 deaths mostly occurred in the very elderly (median age was 86) with multiple comorbidities and many of these should have been expected rather than excess deaths.