Philippines 2021 Birth and Death Data; Crude Estimate of the Impacts on the 2020 Population Pyramid. Population of Children 9 and Under dropped in 2021 Due to Reduced Birth Rates.

The very elderly 80 years and older age bracket stagnated, with the expected growth from the aging population / demographic shift counterbalanced by 2021 excess deaths.

Published yesterday is an article reporting on fertility rates from the Commission on Population. Rural fertility has dropped to 1.9 / woman aged 15 to 49 and urban has dropped to 1.7, both below replacement level. Philippines Popcom: they assume that the fall in birthrates is due to women’s choosing to focus on career and easy access to reproductive health resources.

The article goes on to discuss that: -

• The United Nations Population Fund estimated that 10% of all pregnancies are in mother younger than 19.

• Average Filipino family size has shrunk from 5 to 4.

• Decline in birth rates is expected to continue.

• Despite this, reports that the Philippines is in a sweet spot for demographics with sufficient workforce for coming years.

This article prompted me to look further at the Philippines population. I wanted to estimate the impacts of the 2021 reduced births and excess deaths on the population pyramid.

I referred to the PSA report on 2020 Census data which provided population by age brackets, for 2020 and 2015. I plotted these to get the numbers in each cohort, which were not shown in the PSA pyramids.

In 2015 the largest proportion of the population (42%) was made up by children 19 years and younger. Retirement aged people aged 60 and above contributed 7.5% of the population.

By 2020, 5 years later, the proportion of children 19 and younger had dropped to 40.4%, and the elderly 60 and above had risen to 8.5%, though all age brackets had increased population. There was an 8% increase in population in the 5 years since 2015.

I wanted to estimate what the 2021 Population Pyramid would look like, if I added the 2021 registered birth and subtracted the 2021 registered death data. I cannot access the by year age breakdown, so I had to work with / adjust the 5-year data for 2021, to get a very crude estimate of the population in each age bracket in 2021. My method: -

• 2021 Under 5-years = 4/5 x the 2020 under 5’s, add 2021 Registered Births and less 2021 registered deaths for under 5s

  = 11,066,707 x 4/5 + 1,364,739 (births) - 25,516 (deaths)

  = 10,192,589

• subsequent age brackets I adjusted by deducting 1/5 of the total and then adding 1/5 of the total from the previous bracket before deducting registered 2021 deaths for that bracket.

• For the 80 and older bracket, I just added 1/5 of the prior bracket and deducted the 80 and older 2021 deaths.

Below is what the 2021 pyramid would possibly look like. Most concerning is the big drop (an estimated 874,118 fewer children, -7.9%) in the under 5 years group, and the estimated 44,844 fewer children (0.4% drop) in the 5-9 years group.

The oldest age bracket, 80 years and older did not increase in size (est. only 0.01% increase), as would have been expected with an aging population. Nearly all increases in this age bracket as people moved up from the 75 - 79 bracket were eliminated through excess deaths.

In 2021 the proportion of children in the population had dropped to 39% (from 40.4% in 2020), and that of the elderly had risen to 8.7% (from 8.5% in 2020). There was only a 0.4% increase in population from 2020 to 2021.

Sharing again excess deaths patterns from 2021. The retired aged were greatly affected by excess deaths in 2021.

I consider that the Philippines should not be having a big drop in birth rates, even considering widespread access to quality reproductive health services, because the majority of her population (53%) is within reproductive years; that the 15 - 49 age-group as % of population is still increasing each year.

The Philippines have vaccinated some 70% of their population, with vaccination focused on persons aged 9 and above. Children mostly received the Pfizer product. Report 69 on the Pfizer docs is more than damning.

If the reproductive harm described plays out in the Philippines, many people may no longer be able to reproduce. The evidence will become apparent in coming months and years. The current under 9s group may be the last remaining group with normal reproductive capacity.

Population management is desirable. However, a population crash is not desirable! Hopefully the experts will look into this with accurate data, and clear identification of causative factors.

[Disclaimer: this is a desktop exercise conducted out of curiosity. The method adopted is necessarily crude given the 5-year age blocks I had to work with. Further, the accuracy of this pyramid is dependent on accuracy of the 2020 census data and the completeness of the 2021 vital statistics. OWID sources estimated 95% or better capture of population data.]