Philippines 2024 Vital Statistics Data Released on 31 Jan 2025 Effective as of 30 Nov 2024. 2024 Births and Deaths are Far Lower than the 2023 Reference Period, Late Registrations & Falling Births?

NCR Data for Jan - May appears substantially complete, reveals excess deaths and deficit births vs. prior year data. COD Data shows rising heart disease and cancer deaths. All very concerning!

Philippines Statistics Authority (PSA) gave a 4th release of 2024 vital statistics data for births, deaths, and marriages on 31 Jan 2025. Birth registrations increased by 100,367, death registrations by 54,864, and marriages by 24,645 since the prior release.

Registration of 2024 data appear to be considerably delayed, and incomplete compared to the same period (data compiled as of 30 November) in 2023.

Marriages

2024 marriages are well below historical levels up to June though following a typical monthly pattern (there are preferred months to be wedded), with levels dropping off thereafter due to still incomplete registrations.

Registered Deaths

2024 Deaths are well below 2023 levels for the same reference period, with 145,071 fewer deaths. The red line is 2023 data to November 2023, and the red dotted line is the same period in 2024. I suspect that this lower mortality count may be contributed by pending late registrations of deaths rather than any real drop in mortality levels.

Historical monthly national death data shows that 2024 deaths were slightly above 2019 and 2020 levels for January and February, before dropping off in later months.

Given that the national data is so incomplete it is necessary to look at other data to see real mortality patterns. Assuming that NCR (National Capital Region) Mortality Data is more complete, that data being filed directly with the central PSA, I looked at deaths in this region.

NCR data shows that 2024 deaths for Jan - Feb and Apr - May are considerably higher than 2023 levels. The yellow highlight indicates where 2024 deaths are higher than 2023 deaths, and % increase from 2023 to 2024 is shown. The % increases vs 2023 are not small, ranging from 4.1% to 11.4%, and may still increase with final data compilation. This NCR data confirms my suspicion that excess deaths are considerable and ongoing, at least in urbanized areas, but are not yet reflected in the overall national population data.

Registered Births

2024 national births are well below 2023 levels for the same reference period, with 296,234 fewer births registered. The red line is 2023 data to November 2023, and the red dotted line is the same period in 2024. This lower birth count may be contributed both by late registrations of births and a real drop in births. The 14% loss in January and 15% loss in February 2024 vs. January and February 2023 is alarming, as these 2 months data should be substantially complete already! Will births drop by 14% in 2024?

The by-month national birth data shows that 2024 births are slightly above 2021 levels from Jan - Feb and thereafter drop off sharply. This birth data is highly concerning!

By November’s collation, at least the first 2 Quarters data should be substantially complete. Either birth data is not complete and/or births are plummeting. Jan and March-May have lowest recorded birth rates. Even with late registrations, these months are unlikely to meet 2023 birth levels.

To assess whether the birth rate is really dropping, I assessed NCR data. NCR data appears to be substantially complete up to July 2024. Registered births from Jan to July 2024 are 8 - 17% lower than 2023 levels.

Plummeting birth rates will pose challenges for development of the Philippines. The following clip discusses implications of falling birth rates and aging population in the Philippines.

2024 Cause of Death Data

Cause of Death Data as of 30 November 2024 was also released.

2024 mortality data shows notable increases in deaths attributed to cardiovascular disease and cancer. The top causes of death in the Philippines in 2024 are ischemic heart disease (1 out of every 5 deaths), Cancer (1 out of every 9 deaths), Stroke (1 out of 10 deaths), and pneumonia (1 out of 15 deaths). For interest 1 / 25,000 deaths was reported as having died of / with diagnosed Covid-19, and another 1/100,000 was reported as having died with unconfirmed Covid-19.

Population Data is Concerning

This population data points to pending population collapse. How many years will the Philippines have before deaths outnumber births? The situation is made more complex by the high global demand for Filipino workers, who may migrate to seek better futures for their families.

Is the Philippines already experiencing population contraction? What are the numbers? Philippines net migration is currently rising as other nations seek to prop up falling populations.

2.6 million OFWs were deployed in 2023, a rise of 1.2 million compared to 2022.

Using official PSA 2023 birth, death and DMW (Department of Migrant Workers) OFW (overseas Filipino Workers) migration data: -

2023 Births - 2023 Deaths - 2023 Outward OFW Migration = Est. Population Change

1,448,522 Births - 694,821 Deaths - 1,125,052 Outwards Migration = 361,351 LOSS

This figure represents just losses due to OFW, who are still citizens. But there are also Filipinos who migrate permanently; I have not found numbers for this group.

The 2024 figures may be far worse if the 2024 data continue its current trending and if outward migration continues rising. The Philippines population may already be actively contracting in 2023!

The alarm should be raised!