Philippines - China Relations Under Strain Over Ayungin Shoal in the South China Sea. Marcos stated Filipinos do not yield! Is Calling on Foreign Allies for Support.

The alignment of President Marcos with Western Allies Including US and Australia, places Philippines in a precarious position with her neighbor China. May cool heads and diplomacy prevail!

The disagreement between China and the Philippines over contested waters in the South China Sea / West Philippines Sea, most particularly the access of Philippines to the Ayungin Shoal where the Philippines has been supplying their intentionally grounded ship BRP Siera Madre, is reaching a disquieting peak.

Marcos’ strong words on 28th March over Philippines rights and sovereignty in the West Philippine Sea (WPS), vow to implement a “response and countermeasure package” (against China) stating “Filipinos do not yield”, and statement that he has “submitted the relevant “requirements” to international allies who have expressed their support to the Philippine government against China sound what appears to be a direct challenge. While former President Duterte fostered friendly relationships with China, President Marcos appears to have done a 180 to squarely align with the US and focus on US-PH relations.

Department of National Defense is also making bold statements that could easily be taken as a challenge.

Following on from President Marco’s statements on March 28th about national sovereignty and not backing down, Executive Order 57 was issued on 31st March 2024, calling for strengthening of marine security and territorial integrity. This can also only be seen as a direct response to and challenge against China.

While President Marcos maintains that China is bullying the Philippines, other parties that claim that the Philippines is the aggressor and has not followed agreements with China made by former administrations. There are conflicting accounts of encounters during supply missions to the Ayungin Shoal, where China has used water cannons to hold-off Philippine vessels, and it is likely that at least some encounters may be escalated by Philippines actions.

China does seem to have basis for its claims that the Philippines is violating former agreements, recently apparently confirmed by former supreme court justice Carpio.

Philippines is tapping Australia for supply of marine vessels, which is reasonable and understandable given the need for modernization of the Philippines fleet. However, the news paints this updating specifically in the light of threats in WPS, which can only add to growing tensions. The media stoking further tensions and unease!

Who is the Aggressor? Philippines or China?

Not all observers in the Philippines agree with Marco’ approach. Today’s scathing opinion by Tiglao, warns that the Philippines will be the ultimate loser if diplomacy does not succeed.

While Tiglao’s views are considered controversial by some, he is certainly correct that the Philippines cannot stand successfully against the might of China and has much to lose (affecting tourism, investment and trade, as well as peace), if diplomacy cannot prevail and relationships cannot be repaired.

Does the US want war with China? Will the Philippines be the Pawn Between Super-Powers?

My own opinion:

Marcos, due to his family’s history and a still outstanding 1985 contempt judgement issued against him by a United States court in 1995 in connection with a human rights class suit against his late dictator-father in the amount of $353 million in 2011, is sure to work very closely with the US to avoid this case being called.

I am sure that the US would not hesitate to use the Philippines as a pawn in any conflict with China; perhaps even intends to use the Philippines to spark a war that it appears to be itching to trigger. A new offshore conflict could be a nice distraction from the crumbling infrastructure, border crisis, messy politics, and rising discontent at home.

The Philippines has made itself a direct target in case of any conflict between the US and China with its Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement (ECDA) whereby American troops have been allowed to build facilities and preposition defense assets at Philippine Military Bases. If the Philippines provides itself as a launch ground for US troops and defense assets, then those launching grounds become fair targets.

President Marcos appears very confident in support from America and Western Allies. However, history has shown that any small country that thinks that there will be a positive outcome from any conflict it enters “supported” by the US, should think twice, thrice, and then again. Look at Ukraine, look at the middle east conflicts. The only winners were ever the industrial-military complex, which left countries bereft and in ruins!

I am very uneasy watching these developments, the saber rattling from the Philippines, against a country it has no chance against in a conflict, backed by a nation known for engaging in foreign wars.

Philippines has a long relationship with China. Many Filipinos have Chinese ancestry. There are also many Chinese nationals living and working in the Philippines. Philippines has so much to gain from continued congenial relations with China. So much trade, so much tourism, so much development assistance.

May rational and cool heads speak loudly and prevail! Pray for peace!