Philippines Excess Deaths Continue. 3 Sudden Deaths 2024 - These are the deaths of celebrities / Known People. The mounting deaths of regular folk still continue to pass largely uncommented.
Celebrities Lost: 3 Feb: Deo Endrinal (60), TV executive, gall bladder cancer. 9 Feb: Audrey Mamaril (15), daughter of former PBA Player Billy Mamaril. 2nd March: Actress Jaclyn Jose, Cardiac Arrest.
Given the massive excess deaths that started in 2021 and which have not recovered (ie. there has been no reduction in deaths to bring deaths back to normal levels), the Philippines is still running at least 300,000 cumulative excess deaths up to June 2023 by my very conservative count, and possibly a lot higher, depending on modelling approach.
There are different ways of calculating population excess deaths. The most common being the use of a 5-prior-year average. However, this method does not account for normal increases in deaths in the population over time (due to aging and growing population). In the Philippine from 2000 to 2020, the average annual increase in deaths was 1.9%. If I apply 1.9% to every month from 2015 on to get a baseline and then plot a baseline and actual deaths, it can be observed that excess deaths continue since mid-2020 up to the latest available data.
By rights, by now, there should be 6 months with NO deaths at all, were mortality to return to normal levels. Instead, excess deaths continue. Data release is slow, but there is no reason to expect that the current sad trend of continuing excess deaths is reversing.
The plot shows normal trending from 2016 to 20201, whereby excess deaths in any month was typically corrected in following months by deficit deaths. Not so from mid-2020 onwards!
Eldric Vero also calculates excess deaths based on historical trending, relating these to vaccine rollouts and covid-19 deaths, and providing estimates for outcomes in many nations. He estimates that current excess deaths in the Philippines was running at 389,745 up to end of June 2023!
2024 - Sudden Celebrity Deaths
Multi-organ failure was reported to have resulted in the death of the head of ABS-CBN’s Dreamscape Entertainment on 3 February 2024, aged 60. He had previously been diagnosed with gall bladder cancer.
15-year old daughter former player Billy Mamaril of has died in the US on 9th February 2024. No cause of death has been given. An unbearable tragedy for her family, and a beautiful young woman’s potential lost.
60-year-old actress Jaclyn Jose has passed away on 2nd March 2024. Her heartbroken family have just confirmed that the cause of death was a sudden heart attack and ask for space to process their loss.
She had received a “safe and effective” on 24th August 2021, which was publicly announced.
Statement from her family today.
Condolences! As with all the other people lost prematurely, Jaclyn Jose will be sorely missed! Maybe some more people will become aware of the tragedy the nation is facing through this loss!
I prepared this plot considering that the normal average change in deaths from 2000 to 2020 was 1.9%. Thus, I took the monthly deaths in 2015 and multiplied them by 1.9% for every passing year to provide the baseline. This approach provides adjustment for changing population size and demographics and might be more accurate and less catastrophic than using a 5-year baseline from 2015 to 2019 which has been generally adopted by PSA and other parties looking at excess deaths. Regardless of methodology excess deaths are astounding, appalling, and unprecedented!
Your continued coverage of the disastrous effect of the jab hopefully will lead to actions to hold people accountable.
Ditto to Darrell