Philippines Vital Statistics for Jan-June 2023, as of 31 August 2023 Released on 22 Dec 2023. Jan-April 2023 has 9,156 Excess Deaths vs. Forecast. Total Excess Deaths since Jan '20 stand at 296,045!

That is 296,045 people who should have still been here, celebrating Christmas and new year with their loved ones! Equivalent to 809 Boeing 747s having crashed with all passengers lost! Mourning time!

PSA released 2023 vital statistics up to June 2023, as of 31 August 2023, their 3rd data release for 2023. Note that only the January to March data is beginning to approach substantial completion; all other 2023 months are either very incomplete or with no data yet. There was no update of 2022 registered deaths with this release (2022 data is still as of 31 July 2023).

I have plotted birth and death data by release. This shows that even as of 31 August 2023 the January 2023 data is still increasing (by a few hundred deaths and a few thousand births) with late registrations.

Birth and death data are plotted in my standard format, showing comparison against 2019 to 2022.

2023 births to date are running just slightly higher than 2022 levels for January to March and will increase further with late registrations. April to June data is still too incomplete to consider yet.

January 2023 deaths are only lower than the 2022 deaths. March to April 2023 deaths are already higher than 2022 deaths and are only lower only than 2021 deaths. March 2023 deaths are already 9% higher than March 2022 deaths, and April deaths are 6.6% higher than April 2022 deaths; both will still increase with late registrations.

The by region breakdowns also show consistently higher deaths in March and April 2023. Region 1 March 2023 deaths are higher than all prior year March deaths.

Mimaropa March 2023 deaths are also higher than all prior year deaths.

Region VI March deaths are considerably higher than all prior year March deaths.

Cause of Death Data

Cause of death data was also released on 22nd December. Raw numbers cannot be compared as the data is too incomplete. However, % contribution of the top causes of death can be compared. I have set out the data from 2015 to 2023. There is very concerning trending, completely aside from Covid-19 pandemic and vaccines impacts, most particularly for the No. 1 Cause of Death which is Ischemic Heart Disease which has increased from 12.2% of COD in 2015 to 19.3%. in 2023. This reflects rapidly declining metabolic health of Filipinos.

Of course, pneumonia disappeared in 2020, to be replaced by Covid-19. Cancer also declined dramatically in 2021; cancer patients likely died labelled as Covid-19.

Other metabolic conditions including diabetes and hypertensive diseases all showed a marked step change in 2020. Likely a reflection of the health impacts of lockdowns, both lack of access to medical care for these conditions AND lack of movement, exercise, fresh air, increased stress and poverty, during the harsh lockdowns. This COD change occurred prior to vaccine rollouts, when Covid-19 attributed deaths were quite low (and well within normal respiratory deaths ranges) and in a year when there were no excess deaths!

These patterns of death show an urgent need for health authorities to focus on metabolic health measures. Not just screening and treatment, but of primary prevention through mass public education, review of food quality, accessibility, and affordability (less soft drink, noodles, breads, cakes, rice, and more meat and veges?), encouragement of physical activity, and banning of all junk food advertising on television, in billboards, etc.

Covid-19 vaccines (and infections) absolutely worsen metabolic health, but there are underlying confounders here. My personal theory is that Filipinos had such massive excess deaths in 2021 (with vaccine rollouts and covid-19 cases explosion) at least in part due to nationwide poor metabolic health, and marginal nutritional status. The impacts of poor metabolic health, marginal nutritional status, and poor physical fitness will surely accelerate vaccine adverse reactions, cumulatively accelerating cardiac, cancer, neurological, autoimmune conditions, VIAIDs, and other complications.

Never has population health been more important than now!

Determination of Baseline to Calculate Excess Deaths

Excess deaths that are deaths that are higher than a baseline of expected deaths. How does one determine what deaths are expected, or what baseline to use?

In a stable population, that is not growing and not aging, or growing and aging only very slowly, a 5-year average (assuming those 5-years are typical) may be used. This is used in Australia and many European countries. The Philippines PSA has typically just compared deaths in any one year to prior year deaths when describing changes.

The Philippines is showing distinct trends of year on year increasing deaths and decreasing births. A 5-year average baseline will not be accurate in this case, giving a too low death baseline and a too high birth baseline. A forecast on expected deaths, based on prior patterns of change, will be more accurate than the 5-year average, as it incorporated expected changes over time. Microsoft excel has a forecast function. This function requires at least 5 data points and then will generate a forecast, with upper and lower bounds.

I applied this forecast to monthly deaths from 2015 to 2019, to predict expected deaths from 2020 to 2023. I compared the forecast with the registered deaths. Registered deaths were lower than would have been expected in 2020, and higher than expected in 2021, 2022, and into the 1st quarter of 2023.

Deaths in March 2023 are already an insane 9,539 above the March 2023 forecast. April 2023 is also already 2,633 above forecast. Registered deaths in 2023 will still increase.

Using the forecast method, there was a 1% deficit (fewer than expected) in 2020, a 40.8% excess in 2021, and a 6% excess in 2022. Deaths in 2023 look set to well exceed the forecast as well.

The factor causing excess deaths is still in effect. People who should not be dying are still dying! If the current 2023 death trending continues, and if data is faithfully released, 2023 may end up with deaths close to 700,000.

Hardly a pleasant Christmas conversation. However, this data is critical. What is not monitored cannot be managed!

Christmas blessings to all my readers! I thank you for your patronage, for reading my substack and sharing this data. This is my way to honor the dead! To be sure they are not forgotten!