PSA has Released Philippines Vital Statistics for 2022 as of 30 April 2023 today. 2022 Births increased by 55,814 (+1.3% vs 2021), Deaths increased by 10,208 (-24.5% vs 2021, +8.2% vs. 2020).

Metabolic conditions predominate as COD led by Ischemic Heart Disease, Neoplasms, and Cerebrovascular Disease and closely followed by Diabetes and Hypertensive Disease. 2023 data is still pending.

Since the last data release of 2022 vital statistics on 26 July 2023, which provided vital statistics for 2022 as of 31 March 2023, there have been 55,814 additional registered births and 10,208 additional registered deaths in the 1-month additional recording period up to 30 April 2023. The data is still preliminary and subject for further updating due to late registrations.

I have updated my working vital statistics figures.

REGISTERED BIRTHS

While the 2022 births now exceed 2021 births by 17,638 registered births, good news, the apparent sharp drop off in births in the last quarter of 2022 is still alarming.

2022 births are still lower by 146,307 births than 2019 which was the last typical year. It will be important to look for emerging trends in 2023, when that data is released.

REGISTERED DEATHS

Deaths in 2022 are currently 24.5% lower than deaths in 2021, but 8.2% higher than deaths in 2020, and 7.1% higher than 2019 registered deaths. The end of 2022 year data is still apparently incomplete. 2022’s continued elevated deaths vs all prior years (except 2021 which was highly abnormal) shows that there has been no recovery from 2021’s excess deaths. Had the assault causing these excess deaths been resolved / removed there should have been lower than typical deaths “the pull forward effect” until a new population vulnerable to death had built up. Deaths should have returned to normal patterns.

POPULATION IMPACTS

Annual natural increase = Births - Deaths. This has dropped by nearly 40% between 2015 and 2022. 2023 population trending will be quite critical.

CAUSE OF DEATH

PSA reports 17,662 deaths from Covid-19 (12,610 with Covid-19 identified, and 5,052 with Covid-19 assumed). This contrasts with the around 7,487 deaths from Covid-19 in 2022 shown in the Philippines Department of Health Covid-19 Tracker Dashboard.

Covid-19 does not feature in the top 10 causes of death in 2022. The top 3 causes of death are Ischemic Heart Disease with 121,558 deaths, Neoplasms with 67,669 deaths, and Cerebrovascular Disease with 67,475 deaths. These top 3 are closely followed by Diabetes Mellitus (41,886 deaths), and Hypertensive Diseases (38,119 deaths). All of these, except neoplasms have increased their relative contribution to causes of death with Ischemic Heart Disease up by 24.7%, Diabetes Mellitus up by 21.2%, and Hypertensive Deases up by 37.3%.

Conversely Pneumonia as a cause of death has dropped by nearly 50% along with considerable reductions in chronic lower respiratory infections and tuberculosis as reported causes of death.

Overall, these changing patterns of COD show that health in the Philippines has dramatically declined over the pandemic years.

Whether this is due to lockdowns with reduced access to medical care and social support, increased poverty, reduced access to quality foods, reduced physical activity, some other cause, or a combination of all, urgent study and interventions are required to reverse the trend.

These deaths are underpinned by mass disability and poor population health. I.e. misery! Local health care systems surely can’t cope! Treatment of such conditions will also take funds from other critical infrastructure and development projects.

Philippines Department of Health, led by Sec. Ted Herbosa, assisted by recently appointed Advisor for non-communicable diseases Dr. Tony Leachon will surely have their work cut out for them in addressing this rapidly expanding pandemic of metabolic disease. Let us wish them great focus, wise leadership, and success!