Region IX Zamboanga Peninsula Had No Excess Deaths In 2020. It had 6,836 Excess Deaths in 2021, which is 32.3% Higher Than Forecast Levels.
Region IX Zamboanga Peninsula Had No Excess Deaths In 2020. It had 6,836 Excess Deaths in 2021, which is 32.3% Higher Than Forecast Levels.
The patterns of excess deaths seen in the rest of the Philippines are repeated in this region. The same questions about cause need to be asked, and the cause needs to be stopped.
Region IX Zamboanga Peninsula is an administrative region in the Philippines occupying the western section of Mindanao. It includes the provinces of Zamboanga del Norte, Zamboanga del Sur, and Zamboanga Sibugay, as well as 1 highly urbanized city (Zamboanga City) and the component city of Isabela. In 2020 it had population of 3,875,576, which is 3.55% of the Philippines population.
I have conducted an evaluation of the expected1 and excess2 mortality in the Zamboanga Peninsula. Expected mortality rates for 2020 were calculated using the Excel Forecast tool, using 5-year historical all cause mortality data, and compared against the actual 2020 and 2021 deaths. The excel forecast gives a forecast deaths based on historical patterns and a confidence upper and lower bound. The forecast mortality is a more accurate way to assess actual deaths than simply comparing to one or more previous years, because it is adjusted over time and with reference to typical patterns of deaths. Covid-19 deaths are presented with respect to total and excess deaths in 2020 and 2021. All source data are official public domain Philippines Government data3.
The first figures show the overall Covid-19 deaths by date since the beginning of the pandemic, historical and recent monthly death patterns and forecast deaths for 2020 and 2021. Note that the Covid-19 delta wave deaths here appears as two distinct waves in 2021. These peaks in deaths would appear to match the timing of the initial roll out of Covid-19 vaccines to health care workers and vulnerable persons, and then the rollout to the general population.
Summarized excess deaths for 2020 and 2021, and Covid-19 deaths in 2021 are set out. There were no excess deaths in 2020. There were 6,836 excess deaths in 2021, 32.3% above the normal expected deaths of 21,171 to give a total 2021 deaths of 28,007 in this Region. There were 6x more excess deaths than Covid-19 attributed deaths (range 3.1 to 9.9).
Breakdown by individual provinces, Isabela, and the industrialized city of Zamboanga are provided. Spikes in excess deaths happened in various months, always peaking in September.
Isabela has a smaller population. The historical death data is highly variable, hence the wide confidence range for the forecast. However, similar to other places the deaths peaked in May well above all recent historical levels, and then soared in September and October 2021.
These excess deaths are unexpected and untimely deaths. Their timing needs to be checked against vaccine rollout dates. Ideally every single unexpected death that occurred should be assessed with respect to whether a Covid-19 vaccine had been received and the timing of the death following any vaccination.
Please share this data, ask questions. Please demand an investigation. The cause of this genocide should be determined, and stopped!
Expected All Cause Mortality are the normal deaths seen in any population. These are due to aging, accidents, typical illness patterns. Expected mortality is typically stable over time, changing only gradually as the population’s demographics change. Year on year changes are typically only a few low single digit % points.
Excess Mortality: these are deaths higher or above that which is expected from the normal historical trends. Typical causes can be war, natural catastrophe, an outbreak of infectious disease. When vulnerable persons in any place die earlier than expected, their deaths will show as an excess mortality. However, excess mortality is followed by a period of lower than usual mortality, while a new vulnerable population builds up. It is highly unusual for excess mortality in any population to be sustained over a long period. Excess mortality is an excellent indicator of overall population health and well being.
All source data are from official Philippines Government data, taken directly and sorted for presentation. Vital statistics on deaths were taken from Philippines Statistics Authority (psa.gov.ph) public domain data. All Covid-19 death data is taken from the Philippines Department of Health (DOH) Covid-19 Tracker (last data release on 23 July 2022).